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Business News/ News / India/  Why India could be under-reporting its covid-19 caseload
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Why India could be under-reporting its covid-19 caseload

ICMR needs to have a detailed dashboard and make public all information or allow states to analyse their own data
  • ICMR is the only authority in the country that is authorised to release state-wise data on the number of positive cases
  • Photo: MintPremium
    Photo: Mint

    BENGALURU: Inadequate analysis of data from states by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) is worrying doctors and public health experts. They say this could indicate under-reporting of the novel coronavirus cases, obscuring the true picture of the spread of the disease.

    ICMR is the only authority in the country that is authorised to release state-wise data on the number of people who have tested positive for the novel coronavirus. As per rules, ICMR’s National Institute of Virology (NIV) receives detailed information about each individual tested from every testing lab.

    “A detailed picture is the need of the hour. We cannot slack in data analysis at a time when cases are surging," said Prof T K Srikanth, co- convenor, E-Health Research Center (EHRC), an interdisciplinary research center at IIIT-B. “How else does one ready a contingency plan at the district level? It’s dangerous to sit on data at this time," he said. “Granular data is crucial for public health policy formulation."

    ICMR’s daily bulletin on its website reads like this: “As at 9 pm on April 15 a total of 2,74,599 samples from 2,58,730 individuals have been tested. Of this, 11,297 individuals have been tested positive among the suspected cases and known positive cases in India."

    The lack of detail in the bulletin is a problem, say experts. “We are in the dark about how many of these were asymptomatic or largely asymptomatic. That information can help us map the disease spread and prevent further outbreaks. Knowledge about a proportionate increase in such asymptomatic cases is essential to our mitigation and containment goals. The states very proactively send every detail every day," said a senior doctor from Karnataka who did not want to be named.

    ICMR gets the data directly from testing centres, and does not share it with the states, explained Supreme Court advocate K V Dhananjay, who specialises in public health. The states only get data from ICMR about how many and who tested positive or negative. “They have no information about who carried what symptoms or the absence of symptoms at the time of testing," he said. “For a virus with worrisome characteristics like novel coronavirus, such lack of information leaves states surveillance efforts in disarray. Why does ICMR withhold such data from the states? There’s no need to withhold this information," he said. Dhananjay said we are “still in the dark about what progress" we have made so far in containing the virus.

    “In meetings with our personnel involved in the diagnosis and treatment of covid-19, it emerges that there are serious omissions in data, and this is clearly due to lack of analysis of patient data. Though states send detailed information to ICMR, we get scant or no details on the outcome of the testing," said a public health expert.

    ICMR said it was doing its best in the circumstances. “There may be lapses in data analysis but it is a learning process for everyone. We will not stop any state from coming up with its plan," an official said.

    The need of the hour is for ICMR to have a detailed dashboard and make public all information or allow states to analyse their own data. “We must de-centralise and have data experts analyse at the state level," said a health analyst.



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    Published: 17 Apr 2020, 04:03 PM IST
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