Why lockdowns continue to be our weapon of choice against Covid

Police personnel in Mumbai checking commuters at Marine Drive after a 15-day-long partial lockdown was imposed to check the spread of Covid-19 cases
Police personnel in Mumbai checking commuters at Marine Drive after a 15-day-long partial lockdown was imposed to check the spread of Covid-19 cases

Summary

India has opened doors for new foreign vaccines as active cases surge and vaccine shortages loom. However, ramp up will take time and restrictions will be the prime way to contain the spread in the current wave

Earlier this week, India approved its third covid-19 vaccine (Russia's Sputnik V) and announced fast-track emergency approvals for vaccines cleared by foreign regulators. These moves come at a time when at least 10 states in India have complained of vaccine shortages and the weekly average of doses fell for the first time since immunisation began on 18 January. With 3.47 million average daily doses in the past week, the pace of vaccination has slowed down from 3.58 million in the previous week.

The change in the government’s vaccination policy is unlikely to make an immediate difference. Final approvals, imports and logistics (Pfizer and Moderna vaccines need to be stored at -70 degree celsius) will take time. Besides, covid-19 vaccines are not open for commercial distribution yet, limiting how fast vaccination can pick up pace. While current suppliers Serum Institute and Bharat Biotech plan to increase monthly production capacity to 100 million doses and 12 million doses, respectively, they are a few months away from doing so. Manufacturers are also facing shortages of raw material. As new cases and deaths continue to spiral, mobility restrictions similar to the kind imposed by Maharashtra may well become the weapon of choice to bend the infection curve once again.

So far, India has administered 114.5 million doses. Among major states, Chhattisgarh (157 doses per 1,000 population) and Himachal Pradesh (155 doses) leapfrogged Gujarat to occupy the top two spots. Maharashtra, the state with the highest case-load, has slipped from 18th to 23rd spot (90 doses) over the past week.

Global Resurgence

Globally, India retained its third position in total doses administered, after the US (189 million) and China (172 million), according to data portal Our World in Data. In all, 805 million shots have been given.

In terms of per capita coverage, India still lags behind. But it saw an increase in the number of cumulative doses per 100 people last week. Among major countries, Israel (118.8) leads the way, followed by UAE, Chile, UK and the US.

Despite the expansion of vaccination programmes, several countries are seeing a resurgence in cases, straining healthcare infrastructure. Worryingly, even the young are getting admitted in large numbers now. In Brazil, 52% of ICU beds were occupied by patients aged 40 or younger.

And yet, for the poor, fears of a lockdown are often greater than the virus. Already, fresh lockdowns have led to revisions in economic growth estimates for several emerging markets. The Philippines, for instance, said it is likely to miss its 2021 economic growth target of 6.5% due to fresh lockdowns.

Mounting Fatalities

Currently, India is reporting the highest number of new cases globally. In the last 24 hours, it reported 200,739 confirmed cases. A bigger worry is deaths. For the first time in 2021, India saw above 1,000 deaths for two consecutive days. Over the past two weeks, 20 states have recorded an increase in deaths. Maharashtra reported 2,145 deaths, down 4% from last week (2,230), but still almost thrice of the 738 from two weeks ago.

The epicentre is slowly shifting to Chhattisgarh. The state reported 832 deaths this week, more than twice that of last week. State capital Raipur reported the highest number of deaths among all districts in India. Deaths are three-fold and six-fold higher in Durg and Rajnandgaon this week than last. Another concern is Uttar Pradesh, which reported a three-fold increase in deaths in the past week, and is now ranked third among all states on the death count.

National Spread

As many as 33 states and union territories have reported an increase in cases for two straight weeks. A fortnight ago, this number was 29. Of these 33 states/UTs, 29 reported cases in all their districts, as compared to 25 last week. There are 78 districts that didn’t report any cases a month ago but have done so this week. In Assam, for example, that number increased from 9 to 33 (of 34 districts) this week. Five districts across India recorded above 40,000 cases each this week, accounting for 23% of total cases. Four were from Maharashtra (Pune, Mumbai, Thane and Nagpur) and one from Karnataka (Bengaluru Urban).


Chhattisgarh recorded the highest week-on-week increase in daily cases (21%), followed by Maharashtra (14%), Madhya Pradesh (11%) and Uttar Pradesh (10%). With a ramp up in vaccines expected to take time, restrictions on people movement and contact are the principal containment lever.

Expect more states to use it.

www.howindialives.com is a database and search engine for public data


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