In early February 2020, while the world was still debating about the flu, which was spreading in China and leading world organisations were not sure if it can transit from one person to another, Indian carriers operated their last non-stop flight to China.
What started as a precautionary measure against the COVID-19 pandemic, later became a geopolitical impasse due to the Galwan conflict of 2020, when the armies of the two nations had clashed. After a series of negotiations involving the military, NSA, and foreign ministry, the relations between the two most populous countries in the world are set to move forward. Amongst multiple resumptions due to take place, one is direct flights between India and China.
This will bring a huge respite for passengers, largely traders who frequent the two countries and are currently relying on one-stop flights via Thailand, Malaysia, Hong Kong or Singapore in most cases to make the trip to China. This also means good news for airlines in India who can reinstate and add flights and cash in on the huge cargo potential between the two countries.
January 2020 was the last full month of operations before the pandemic led to reduction in flights. The Chinese carriers dominated the connectivity between the nations, with Air China operating five times a week to Delhi from Beijing and four times a week to Mumbai from Beijing. China Southern Airlines operated double daily flights to Delhi from Guangzhou, China Eastern Airlines operated eight times a week to Kolkata from Kunming and a daily flight to Delhi from Shanghai, while Shandong Airlines operated four times a week between Delhi and Kunming, data shared by Cirium - an aviation analytics company, show.
From the Indian side, IndiGo operated a daily flight each between Kolkata and Guangzhou and Delhi to Chengdu, while Air India operated five times a week to Shanghai from Delhi. IndiGo had announced flights from Mumbai to Chengdu which were to begin mid-March of 2020 but could never start.
RwandAir of Rwanda was the surprise operator offering flights between Mumbai and Guangzhou thrice a week with full rights to carry passengers between India and China. RwandAir does not operate to India anymore and thus does not operate this sixth freedom route to China.
At the time of closure, the Chinese carrier operated 42 frequencies between India and China, exhausting the quota, while Indian carriers operated 19 frequencies a week with plans for seven more, with room to grow further.
There has been a sea change in operations and the aviation market between 2020 and now. Air India is a private entity with ambitions to grow and IndiGo is at least twice its size today compared to what it was during the pandemic. From what looked a cakewalk for IndiGo to add frequencies, won’t be the case anymore with the privatised Air India also wanting a pound of flesh.
As the flights open up, it needs to be seen if it would start as a big bang reinstatement or a gradual one. Airline networks have changed drastically from pre-COVID times to now.
Airlines have not resumed routes which they operated pre-pandemic but have returned to those destinations, albeit from different points. IndiGo, for example, resumed flights to Hong Kong but from Delhi instead of Bengaluru, from where it operated pre-COVID. There may be a battle for the remainder of the rights on the Indian side with SpiceJet holding a few and Akasa Air, which did not exist in 2020, wanting to expand.
There were 15,000 seats each way each week and good load factors. The traffic has since been taken away by other carriers, with most airlines making the most of the lack of direct connectivity by increasing fares. The fares could quickly topple as the one-stop carriers now focus on getting some traffic as non-stop flights become available. The fastest of options today take the passenger to Shanghai from Delhi in about nine hours compared with six hours of non-stop flight. The story is similar to other points which were connected in the past
In terms of connectivity between India and China, the domestic side has been unlucky. IndiGo started operations in September 2019, only to scale down towards the end of February and close in March 2020, less than a year after starting. IndiGo was bullish about its China operations and even started a call centre in Guangzhou. Jet Airways started operations to Shanghai and onwards to San Francisco in 2008, only to hit a roadblock following the economic crisis spurred by the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
The airline pulled out in January 2009, less than a year after starting operations. In 2013, SpiceJet became the only private carrier in the country to have operations to mainland China when it launched flights to Guangzhou from New Delhi. The flights were launched in February 2013 and coincided with the rising oil prices – a challenge for newer and longer routes. The flights to Guangzhou were pulled out in February 2014, barely a year into operations.
Now, when airlines are looking to diversify into markets where foreign exchange can be earned to buffer the shock of a sliding rupee and dollar-denominated costs, this will be a good opportunity, especially on the cargo side.
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