Israel-Iran conflict adds more trouble for Indian airlines flying west

As Israel began striking targets in Iran in the early hours today, Iranian airspace was closed. Iraq soon followed by shutting its airspace as well. Flights were forced to take alternate routes and exit the conflict zone as quickly as possible. With Pakistani airspace already closed to Indian carriers, the situation has further complicated westward travel from India. This comes just a day after the tragic crash in Ahmedabad, where an Air India flight bound for London crashed during takeoff, killing all on board except for one passenger who miraculously survived.

Iran-Israel conflict: What is happening?

Israel has said that Iran is dangerously close to developing a nuclear bomb, something it views as a direct threat to its existence. Multiple waves of airstrikes have reportedly been carried out at various locations across Iran, including what Israel has described as nuclear facilities.

Early, unconfirmed reports suggest that Israel's strikes may have targeted senior members of Iran's military leadership and their residences.

Iran-Israel conflict: Airspace closure woes

Indian carriers have been barred from entering Pakistani airspace since 24 April, initially for a month, and the restriction was later extended via a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) until 24 June. This prohibition applies to all Indian airlines.

As a result, the traditional westbound routes—especially those used by Air India—via Pakistan, parts of Afghanistan, and into Iran, have become inaccessible. This prompted several diversions on the day the NOTAM was issued, followed by flight cancellations and the addition of technical stops, particularly on Air India’s North America routes. Many of these flights are now operating with one technical stop en route.

If Iranian and Iraqi airspace remains closed for an extended period, it will further limit available air routes, forcing airlines to fly further south to avoid these regions. This will test aircraft endurance and result in longer flight times from India to Europe.

Israel-Iran conflict: Who is impacted?

Currently, amongst Indian carriers, only Air India has a sizable widebody intercontinental presence from India, and Air India remains the most impacted airline. IndiGo has already shifted its planned flights to Manchester and Amsterdam from Delhi to Mumbai, and they begin early next month.

For Air India, it adds to the woes as the circuitous route would mean extra fuel and extra time, putting pressure on operating costs as well as crew duty times and more.

What next?

The world is in the middle of multiple conflicts, with a war in Ukraine since 2022, conflicts in the Middle East, including Iran, Syria, Yemen, among others. Civil aviation has been at the receiving end of all these conflicts, especially after cases like the Malaysian aircraft shot down over Ukraine, Ukraine Airlines over Iran, and recently, the Azerbaijani airline AZAL facing a similar brunt near conflict zones, but not being completely fatal.

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How long the Israel-Iran conflict will last is anybody's guess, and likewise for the Pakistani airspace closure. However, the impact on Indian carriers will be high if various conflicts continue. This could disrupt plans for IndiGo to commence flights to London, Copenhagen, Athens, among others, while Air India's turnaround could take longer due to increased pressure on its finances. Currently, it remains unknown what cost airlines are incurring to avoid Pakistan and now Iran and Iraq, at least for a few days. Even when the airspace opens up, airlines have internal safety assessments done to decide which airspace to use and not to use for the safety of aircraft. This will be more so in the aftermath of the tragedy at Ahmedabad.