Kharif sowing slows amid patchy rains as paddy, oilseeds decline sharply

New Delhi: El Niño conditions have cast a shadow over India's kharif sowing season, with acreage under key crops such as paddy, pulses, oilseeds and cotton trailing last year's levels amid delayed and uneven monsoon rains.

As of 10 July, farmers had sown kharif crops across 53.12 million hectares, down from 63.25 million hectares a year ago, according to government data. The sown area is also 1.8 million hectares below the normal acreage—defined as the 2021–25 average—reflecting sluggish planting across several rain-fed states. Paddy has seen one of the sharpest declines.

A weak monsoon may cut paddy acreage, Mint reported on 4 July. Rice was sown over 11.47 million hectares, compared with 12.55 million hectares during the same period last year, leaving a shortfall of 1.08 million hectares. However, the area remains 1.7 million hectares higher than the five-year normal, indicating that paddy planting is still ahead of its long-term average.

Experts, however, said that sowing activity is likely to pick up as the rainfall deficit for the southwest monsoon has narrowed by 12 July, helped by surplus rains in early part of the month.

"This augurs well for kharif sowing trends, and we expect it to pick up during the current lull in the monsoon rains. India typically receives ~32% of its entire season rainfall in the month of July, followed by 29% in August. Further, ~55% of the total area sown in the kharif season is typically covered in July, with this proportion being much higher for crops such as pulses (65%), oilseeds (66%) and coarse cereals (62%). Consequently, adequate rainfall during July-August remains crucial to support sowing and output, and contain inflationary pressures in the ongoing fiscal," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist, Icra Ltd.

The southwest monsoon finally swept across the entire country, reaching full coverage last week. The delayed advance comes in a year when the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall, with the southwest monsoon expected to be 90% of the long-period average (LPA) during the June-September season. The southwest monsoon is critical to India's economy and agriculture, contributing roughly 70% of the country's annual rainfall.

Oilseeds have witnessed a steeper decline. Total oilseed acreage stood at 11.78 million hectares, against 14.92 million hectares last year, a deficit of 3.13 million hectares. Soybean, which is India's largest oilseed crop, was sown over 9.05 million hectares, down 1.72 million hectares from last year, while groundnut acreage declined by 1.20 million hectares.

Sowing of Shri Anna (coarse cereals) also remained weak, with acreage at 9.87 million hectares, 2.86 million hectares lower than last year. Bajra acreage was down by 1.22 million hectares, maize by 1.36 million hectares, and jowar by 213,000 hectares.

Pulses planting also lagged, with the total area reaching 5.66 million hectares, 1.72 million hectares below last year's level. Arhar recorded the largest decline, with acreage lower by 849,000 hectares, followed by urdbean (395,000 hectares) and moong (256,000 hectares), reflecting slow sowing progress in rain-fed regions.

Sugarcane was among the few exceptions. The crop covered 5.76 million hectares, 86,000 hectares higher than last year and 236,000 hectares above the normal area. Cotton sowing reached 7.95 million hectares, down 1.44 million hectares from last year and 1.63 million hectares below the normal level.

According to the IMD's monthly outlook, India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in July, at less than 94% of the long-period average. The forecast follows India's driest June in more than a decade, and the fifth-driest since records began in 1901, with southwest monsoon rainfall 39.8% below the LPA. The country received 99.5mm of rainfall during the month, compared with the normal of 165.3mm.

A report from Crisil Ltd titled “Water, water, every where. But not a lot to grin”, released on 10 July, states that history shows that weaker monsoon years are often accompanied by softer agricultural output, although the extent of the impact varies widely across regions and crops. "Areas supported by robust irrigation infrastructure tend to weather these challenges more effectively, while the relatively more rain-dependent regions remain at the mercy of nature’s whims, vulnerable to weather-induced shocks," the report added.