Monsoon to remain subdued across much of India, heavy rain to persist in Northeast and East
Monsoon rainfall will stay subdued over most of India through 19 July, even as IMD warns of heavy to extremely heavy rain in the Northeast and East. Meghalaya and Sikkim's Himalayan belt face the highest flash flood risk after a day of extreme rainfall in the region.
The monsoon rains are set to weaken across the northwest, west-central and southern regions of the country over the next week, even as authorities warn of extreme rainfall in the northeast and east that could trigger flash floods.
Northwest India comprises the Western Himalayan region, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, while central India includes Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh. The southern peninsula covers Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Lakshadweep.
According to IMD, in the northwest region, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Rajasthan, eastern Uttar Pradesh, and western Uttar Pradesh are likely to receive isolated to scattered showers during 13-17 July. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over east Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during 18-19 July.
IMD has forecast largely isolated to scattered rainfall across central India and the southern peninsula over the coming week, with monsoon activity expected to strengthen over Kerala, Lakshadweep and Coastal Karnataka towards the weekend.
The uneven rainfall pattern comes at a critical juncture for India's monsoon-dependent agricultural economy, with the eastern and northeastern states bearing the brunt of flood risk even as large swathes of the country see rainfall activity taper off.
In central India, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha are likely to receive isolated to scattered rainfall through 19 July, while West Madhya Pradesh is expected to witness similar conditions between 15 and 19 July.
Across the southern peninsula, isolated to scattered rainfall is expected over North and South Interior Karnataka, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal through 19 July. Kerala and Mahe are likely to receive scattered showers until 17 July, while Coastal Karnataka is expected to witness rainfall through 16 July. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam are forecast to receive rain from 15 July, with Rayalaseema likely to see showers during 16-19 July.
Meanwhile, the weather office said isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to continue over the Northeast, West Bengal and Bihar over the next three to four days. Meghalaya and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim are expected to receive isolated extremely heavy rainfall on 13 July, raising the risk of flash floods and waterlogging in vulnerable areas.
The forecast follows widespread heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours. Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim recorded extremely heavy rainfall of 21 cm or more, while East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam & Meghalaya and Tripura received very heavy rainfall of 12-20 cm. Heavy rainfall was also reported from Arunachal Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, while thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds of up to 80 kmph lashed parts of Punjab and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
The IMD expects widespread rainfall to continue across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and the other northeastern states through 19 July, with another spell of very heavy rainfall likely over Assam and Meghalaya on 16 July. Gangetic West Bengal, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Bihar are also forecast to receive widespread rainfall during the week.
About the Author
Vijay C. Roy is a journalist with over 21 years of experience covering various news beats across different organisations such as Business Standard and The Tribune. In the past, he has covered beats such as finance, auto, MSME, commodities, FMCG, pharmaceutical, agriculture, IT/ITES, infrastructure and start-ups. He joined Mint in February 2025, and covers agriculture, food processing, fertilizers, environment and climate change, bringing over two decades of experience reporting on farm policy, food inflation, crop trade, and rural livelihoods.<br><br>Vijay’s areas of reporting include food security and climate change policies, focusing on their impact on different stakeholders and their implications. His expertise lies in simplifying complex agri-economic issues such as edible oil import dependence, cotton and wheat trends, fertiliser subsidies, and climate-related risks. He has covered key developments including global supply disruptions and evolving trade policies, offering both macroeconomic perspective and field-level context. Known for his credible and balanced reporting, he follows a rigorous, fact-based approach that prioritises accuracy and context. He is driven by a commitment to public interest, aiming to make critical agricultural and economic issues accessible while contributing to informed policy and industry discussions.
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