New Delhi: India's exports to Afghanistan are increasingly going through Dubai as Pakistan's closure of the Wagah-Attari transit route has forced exporters to find new ways to operate. This situation distorts the official trade data between the two countries and obscures the true extent of commercial ties, according to persons familiar with the matter.
Commerce ministry data show India's exports to Afghanistan dropped 45.8% to ₹2,239.11 crore in fiscal 2026, down from ₹4,129.04 crore in fiscal 2022. At the same time, imports rose 53.4% to ₹5,837.49 crore. This change has turned a trade surplus of ₹323.03 crore into a deficit of ₹3,598.38 crore, while total bilateral trade has remained around ₹8,000 crore.
Rice, including basmati, highlights the disconnect. Exports fell from ₹108.92 crore in fiscal 2021 to nearly zero by fiscal 2023. They partially recovered to ₹23.93 crore in fiscal 2026, but this is still 78% below pre-disruption levels. "The volume has not declined. Rice exporters are sending consignments to traders in Dubai, who then export them to Afghanistan. That's why these shipments do not show up in the export data," said Vijay Setia, a basmati rice exporter from Haryana.
This rerouting reflects a larger trend of India using the United Arab Emirates (UAE)’s Jebel Ali port as an alternative amid geopolitical issues. Pakistan blocked Afghan transit after India revoked Jammu and Kashmir's special status in 2019. Rising military tensions between Islamabad and the Afghan Taliban since October 2025 have pushed Kabul closer to New Delhi. Meanwhile, India's alternative route through Iran's Chabahar port remains complicated.
- Pakistan's transit ban pushes India's Afghan exports quietly through Dubai instead.
- India's Afghan trade flips from ₹323 crore surplus to ₹3,598 crore deficit.
- Rice exports appear down 78%, but real volumes may be unchanged.
- UAE trade booms by 64%, partly masking the actual figures for India-Afghanistan trade.
- Pakistan-Taliban military clashes since 2025 push Kabul closer toward India ties.
In comparison, India’s trade with UAE has been growing, with overall bilateral trade rising 64.27% from ₹5,43,628.09 crore to ₹8,93,005.30 crore.
UAE’s re-exports to Afghanistan have risen over 112%, from 2021 to 2024, according to data from the UAE ministry of economy. Re-exports involve exporting goods that were previously imported from another country, without modifying or adding value to them.
Trade shows how the workaround plays out
According to Jajati K. Pattnaik, professor and chairperson, Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Afghanistan is emerging as a crucial partner for India and a gateway to Central Asia. “The land routes to Afghanistan are in Pakistan. Dubai, the global hub for international trade and commerce, provides an alternative for trade connectivity with Afghanistan,” he said.
“Moreover, the completion of IMEC (India-Middle East Europe Economic Corridor) would be a stepping stone toward future India-UAE and India-Afghanistan trilateral cooperation,” said Pattnaik.
Afghan exports, including dry fruits, fresh fruits, nuts, spices and other agricultural products, enjoy duty-free access to India under the Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) between the two countries, while a substantial portion of India’s support is delivered through humanitarian aid and therefore does not get fully reflected in export figures.
Dushyant Mulani, chairman of the Federation of Freight Forwarders' Associations in India (FFFAI), an apex body representing 31 member associations and 5,000 Custom House Agents, explained the mechanics of the rerouting. Dubai-based traders and Indian trading communities there re-book goods for Afghanistan, partly because Afghanistan's banking system poses challenges, and Dubai operates as a free trade zone. Goods typically move from India to Dubai, then to Iran's Bandar-e-Abbas port, before being trucked into Afghanistan. High-value items like medical equipment and vaccines go via Delhi-Kabul flights, but since these are small aircraft, larger shipments still get routed through Dubai's airport instead.
Queries emailed to India’s ministries of external affairs, commerce and industry, and the embassies of Afghanistan and UAE in New Delhi remained unanswered till press time.
Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port has previously helped Indian importers solve such vexed issues. Mint earlier reported that products from both Chinese and foreign manufacturers were reaching India's shores through Dubai’s Jebel Ali port to bypass China's export restrictions.
FFFAI's Mulani said the West Asia rerouting adds significant costs and delays. For low-value items, cost overruns run 60-65%, with 30-35% of that coming from double handling—once at Dubai, then again at the destination. Transit time is typically 10-14 days via sea, but stretches to 25-30 days when routed through Iran.
“For India, it is always desirable to maintain trade and people-to-people connectivity with countries where the politics are not enabling. Whether it is Iran or Afghanistan, whatever be the political constraints, for India it will be in its own long-term interest to nurture and maintain trade links and people-to-people contact,” said Uday Bhaskar, director, Society for Policy Studies.
Seeking to reduce dependence on Islamabad and gain broader international engagement, the Taliban administration has sought closer economic and diplomatic ties with India, describing New Delhi as a significant regional and economic partner.
Afghan goods still flow freely into India
“India’s exports to Afghanistan being routed through Dubai illustrate how geopolitics increasingly shapes geoeconomics. The absence of direct transit access has compelled India to rely on alternative commercial hubs, transforming what should be an economic decision into a strategic necessity,” said Nagalaxmi M. Raman, director and head, Amity Institute of International Studies, Amity University, Noida.
The changing regional dynamic has become more pronounced as tensions between Kabul and Islamabad have escalated. Pakistan, which had initially backed the Afghan Taliban’s return to power, has increasingly accused the Taliban of supporting Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group, according to Pakistan, leading to repeated confrontations. The dispute escalated into a series of military skirmishes beginning in October 2025 and intensified again in early 2026, underscoring the deepening rift between the two neighbours.
Connectivity remains another challenge. India has long viewed Iran’s Chabahar port as a strategic route for accessing Afghanistan and Central Asia without relying on Pakistan. However, recent developments have complicated those plans.