New Delhi: Your plate of idli, dosa, dal makhani or a pack of papad is unlikely to get much costlier this year despite concerns that the El Niño impact could fan food inflation by clipping the harvest of kharif crops, including these items' key input, urad. The government is confident India will have comfortable supplies of the key pulse as, unlike most crops of the season, urad sowing is higher than last year while imports from Myanmar and Brazil are also seen adequate, said two officials in the know.
The consumer affairs department expects stable urad supplies to keep a lid on inflation in its related food items.
Urad has emerged as an outlier this kharif season that has seen 13% shortfall in rainfall so far. Overall kharif acreage has declined near 3% year-on-year, while urad sowing is up nearly 11%. In contrast, its pulse peer tur's area is down 9.2% while staple foodgrain paddy 2.6% lower.
While the El Niño weather phenomenon, which typically curtails monsoon rains, has raised concerns over the output of several crops, the government expects urad to remain at least at last year's level of 2.16 million tonnes, buoyed by higher kharif acreage.
As per latest available data, the consumer affairs department, citing a Niti Aayog evaluation of the Price Stabilisation Fund (PSF), pegged India's annual consumption of urad at 3.189 million tonnes in 2022-23.
According to agriculture ministry sowing data, urad was sown across 2.108 million hectares as of 31 July 2026, up nearly 11% from 1.9 million a year ago. Although acreage is still below the five-year normal of 2.96 million hectares, the year-on-year rise has eased concerns.
Urad is grown across all three cropping seasons: kharif, rabi and summer. However, despite being cultivated through the year, its output has been largely dwindling from 2.776 million tonnes in 2021-22 to 2.16 million tonnes in 2025-26.
Acreage rise is seen across the major producing states. In Rajasthan, urad area has risen to 375,000 hectares from 311,000 a year ago; Madhya Pradesh, India's largest producer, at 672,000 hectares from 579,000 hectares; and Uttar Pradesh at 552,000 hectares, marginally up from 542,000 hectares. Sowing has also expanded in Gujarat, where it is up from 50,000 hectares to 71,000, and in Bihar, from 4,000 hectares to 5,000 hectares.
“There are concerns over higher international urad prices. However, with a favourable domestic supply outlook and robust production estimates from Brazil and Myanmar, urad prices are unlikely to rise despite market speculation,” the second official said. "Consumers need not worry. Adequate quantities of urad will be available, and prices are expected to remain stable."
The price of fair average quality of Myanmar-origin urad is up around 6%, from about $789 per tonne in late October 2025 to $835–840 per tonne for June-July 2026 shipments.
Government estimates indicate that Brazil and Myanmar could together export nearly 900,000 tonnes urad to India this year. “Around 700,000 tonnes in Myanmar and 200,000 tonnes in Brazil will provide adequate importable surplus to supplement domestic supplies,” this official said.
Industry executives said stable urad supplies would help food manufacturers keep their product prices steady and would not lead to any additional price burden on consumers.
"Urad is a key ingredient in many of our food products. A rise of up to 5% in the price of a key ingredient is manageable and does not have an impact on the prices of food items. However, any increase beyond that starts affecting costs,” said Jigish Devta, managing director of Deepkiran Foods, an Ahmedabad-based exporter of ready-to-eat food products. “We are closely monitoring the sowing and production estimates of pulses amid El Niño. Going by government's assessment that urad prices are likely to remain stable, we are hopeful there will not be any major impact."
“Markets often react to weather uncertainty well before the crop is harvested. However, the current acreage trends and expected imports suggest that the underlying supply situation for urad remains comfortable," said Rakesh Arrawatia, professor at the Institute of Rural Management Anand (Irma) and dean at the School of Cooperative Banking and Finance. "This should discourage speculative price spikes, unless production falls sharply."
In India, prices of the pulse have risen 6-7% over a year. As of 5 August, the average retail price of urad was ₹121.63 per kg, compared with ₹114.77 per kg a year ago. Wholesale prices were at ₹11,219.04 per quintal, up from ₹10,490.32 a year ago. Hereon, officials expect improved availability to help keep prices stable over the coming months.
India's trade data shows Myanmar and Brazil together supplied more than 1.02 million tonnes of urad in 2025-26. Myanmar was the largest exporter, shipping in 781,000 tonnes of urad worth $646.28 million, while the number two supplier Brazil's exports jumped to 241,000 tonnes, valued at $211.56 million.
To be sure, India has so far kept imports of key pulses urad and tur duty-free to augment domestic supplies and contain food inflation. Imports of masur (lentil) and chana attract a 10% basic customs duty. Yellow peas currently enjoy a zero-duty regime, with the government extending duty-free imports until 31 March 2027 to ensure adequate availability in the domestic market.
Queries on urad supplies sent to the consumer affairs department and the embassies of Brazil and Myanmar remained unanswered until press time.