Forecasters have predicted an unusually intense El Nino event gathering strength in the tropical Pacific, which may break records and is already influencing global weather patterns, CNN reports.
Computer model projections show that this El Nino event will capture the title of the strongest since 1950.
What are El Nino events?
El Nino events are a climate cycle characterised by hotter-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which transfer huge amounts of heat to the atmosphere via clouds and heavy precipitation, similar to how sound waves travel after a bell rings, according to Columbia University climate and public health researcher Jeffrey Shaman. A record-strong event is measured by how hot the water in a specific, benchmark region of the tropical Pacific becomes.
What are its expected effects?
This is expected to cause a drought in Indonesia and Australia, a drier-than-usual summer monsoon in India, and areas of drought and heavier-than-average rainfall in different parts of Africa. Since forecasts provide advance warning, policymakers can prepare for disruptions to food supplies and key resources.
Other predicted effects include a milder-than-usual winter in the Northern USA, wetter conditions in the southern USA, and a below-average hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean.
Nathaniel Johnson, a specialist in seasonal climate forecasting at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said that a strong El Nino means that it will be the dominant player influencing seasonal weather patterns through its duration.
An effect of El Nino is that it causes global average temperatures to rise, with it pushing global temperatures to record levels in 2026 and 2027, with record warm global sea temperatures being recorded for at least two months now.
Experts warn that cities should plan for extreme heat, heavy rainfall and heat events, and farmers need to plant different varieties of crops depending on the increased likelihood of drought and floods.
