The depth of the Pakistan-China alliance and what it means for India

For a long time, terrorists trying to infiltrate India from Pakistan were found to be using sniper guns made with Chinese technology. A decade ago, images released routinely by terrorist organisations after major attacks in Jammu & Kashmir, revealed they were taken from Chinese-manufactured body cameras.

Ditto for encrypted messaging devices used by terrorists for communication. Security agencies have red flagged the fact that the Pakistani Army regularly received supplies of weapons, cameras, and communication devices from China, which on many occasions, were loaned out to extremists.

What was until then a trickle of Chinese -manufactured small arms for Pakistan, it’s `all weather’ friend, has now morphed into a full-fledged defence alliance between two major military powers.

For the first time since it commenced Operation Sindoor and thwarted most of Pakistan’s aerial attacks, India on May 12 named China-supplied weapons in the Pakistani arsenal used against the Indian Armed Forces. At a briefing, Air Marshal A K Bharti, Director General Air Operations, presented visual evidence of missile remnants. “You can see the pieces of it on the screen,” he said, showcasing debris of the PL-15 long range missile that fell inside Indian territory, including a relatively intact rear section recovered from Hoshiarpur in Punjab.

Last week, armed forces intercepted and neutralised a range of high-tech foreign weapons used by Pakistan, including Chinese-origin PL-15 air-to-air missiles. The PL-15, developed by China’s Aviation Industry Corporation (AVIC), is a long-range, radar-guided missile designed to engage high-value airborne targets at ranges exceeding 200 km, sources say.

Its export version, the PL-15E, is reported to have a maximum range of 145 km and is integrated with Pakistan’s JF-17 Block III and J-10CE fighters.

The naming of China is a first in this round of India-Pakistan hostilities — New Delhi has for years closely tracked the expanding Sino-Pakistan military ties, without taking names.

After serious air hostilities last week, Islamabad was hardly in the mood to be coy about its main defence supplier, China. On April 26, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) released visuals of JF-17s armed with PL-15E and PL-10 missiles. Pakistan’s fleet includes an estimated 45-50 JF-17 Block IIIs and 20 J-10CEs — approximately 70 aircraft capable of deploying the PL-15E, according to Pakistan’s military.

The missile’s guidance system includes inertial navigation, Beidou satellite updates, a two-way datalink, and AESA radar terminal homing.

It features a dual-pulse solid rocket motor and can reach speeds exceeding Mach 5. The warhead, typically high-explosive fragmentation, weighs between 20 to 25 kg. The weapon is nearly certainly to have been sourced directly from China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF).

Crucially, both countries jointly manufacture the J-17 aircraft, the mainstay of the PAF.

According to defence analyst Pravin Sawhney, the popular notion of a two-front-war visualized as a battle that India will have to fight on two fronts, with China and Pakistan, has now metamorphosed into a `one front reinforced war’.

``India has now to contend not just with Pakistan. A war with its traditional rival Pakistan now also involves China, because China and Pakistan have developed a strong military relationship, including significant defence interoperability,” Sawhney, a former Indian Army officer, who edits a security magazine, FORCE, told this reporter.

This interoperability extends to fighter jets, missile technology, data linking, electronic warfare, airborne warning and control system, which is a type of aircraft equipped with advanced radar and sensor technology that provides early warning, surveillance, command, control, and communication capabilities, he says, adding that these aircraft serve as mobile radar stations, detecting and tracking aerial and surface threats over vast distances.

Global interest in the Chinese defence industry has shot up ever since Pakistan claimed that China’s AVIC Chengdu Aircraft J-10C fighter, which is co-produced with China, had shot down Indian combat aircraft – including the advanced French-made Rafale – during an aerial battle on May 7. India has denied the Pakistani claim.

The J-10C is the latest version of China’s single-engine, multirole J-10 fighter, which entered service with the PLAAF in the early 2000s. Featuring better weapon systems and avionics, the J-10C is classified as a 4.5-generation fighter – in the same tier as the Rafale but a rung below 5th-generation stealth jets, like China’s J-20 or the US F-35.

According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), over the past five years, China has supplied 81% of Pakistan’s imported weapons.

Those exports include advanced fighter jets, missiles, radars and air-defence systems that experts – correctly as it now turns out - predicted would play a pivotal role in any military conflict with India. Some Pakistan-made weapons have also been co-developed with Chinese firms or built with Chinese technology and expertise.

Not surprising, this developing Sino-Pakistan alliance coincides with the August 2019 decision on Kashmir, when India revoked the special status, or autonomy, granted under Article 370 of the Constitution to Jammu and Kashmir—a region administered by India. Pakistan claims all parts other than the ones governed by China, its `ironclad’ ally.

Chinese and Pakistani militaries have also engaged in increasingly sophisticated joint air, sea and land exercises, including combat simulations and even crew-swapping drills.

Former director general military operations (DGMO), Lt. Gen. (retd) Vinod Bhatia, says he would not be too concerned about this defence alliance. ``To me, all this noise about Rafael allegedly being shot by J-10C, is a commercial call. China is manufacturing arms and it needs buyers hence the publicity,'' he told this reporter.

Since the launch of Operation Sindoor on the night of May 6, the Chinese defence stock Avic Chengdu Aircraft, the high-flying company that manufactures J10 jets, had surged over 60% in a matter of days. These shares witnessed a heavy selloff on May 13, following a strongly-worded message by Prime Minister Narendra Modi a day ago on the successful completion of the operation. Following his message, shares of Chinese defence companies faced a heavy selloff today, even as Indian defence stocks rallied.

In the fog of war, claims and counterclaims are commonplace. However, analyst Sawhney warns against under-rating this powerful military alliance. ``China is a military superpower. India is not, and neither is the Pakistani Army a pushover,'' he says.