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Will asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth in 2032, here’s what NASA says
- Last week, NASA stated that there is currently a 2.3 per cent (or 1 in 43) chance that the asteroid will hit Earth on December 22, 2032.
An asteroid measuring up to 300 feet may hit into the Earth in 2032, NBC quoted the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) as saying, adding that the chances of a collision are 'extremely low'.
The space rock, labelled as 2024 YR4, was discovered weeks ago. Last week, NASA stated that there is currently a 2.3 per cent (or 1 in 43) chance that the asteroid will hit Earth on December 22, 2032.
However, in January, NASA's initial estimate of the space rock hitting was 1.2 per cent. The space agency at that time had said, as NBC quoted, " “no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%.”
Meanwhile, the NASA is monitoring the asteroid’s orbit and said that the object’s “impact hazard” could be ruled out eventually.
As per details, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will also observe the asteroid in March 2025 to better assess the asteroid’s size.
In the blog post about the space rock, the agency said it is “also possible its impact probability will continue to rise” as more details become clear.
"As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known. It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA’s asteroid risk list, maintained by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies," NASA said in a blog post.
How large is 2024 YR4?
NASA estimates that the asteroid measures between 130 feet and 300 feet across (in the range of 40 to 90 meters). Though the estimate is based measurements of the asteroid’s brightness, the size cannot be further constrained without thermal infrared observations, radar observations, or imagery from a spacecraft that could closely approach the asteroid, said the space agency.
What is the current location of the asteroid?
In the last estimate calculated by the NASA in January 31, the 2024 YR4 is 48 million km (30 million miles) from Earth and moving farther away on its outbound path around the Sun.
How fast can this asteroid hit earth?
In case 2024 YR4 hits the Earth in 2032, it would impact at a high velocity, roughly 17 kilometers per second (about 38,000 miles per hour).
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First Published:13 Feb 2025, 11:00 PM IST
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