Donald Trump order, tighter rules, wave of attacks: Is it the end of the Great Migration Dream for Indians?

As soon as Donald Trump, the 47th United States President, signed the executive order to end birthright citizenship for children born to non-citizen parents, speculations turned rife whether this was the last nail in the ‘anti-immigration coffin’. Trump categorically said that he wants to end birthright citizenship because it is ‘ridiculous’ and argued that nationals of countries with high levels of immigration to the US, including India and China have particularly exploited this system.

As of June 2024, there were over 5.4 million people of Indian origin living in the United States.

With Canada, the UK and Australia and other members of the European Union (EU) altering and restricting the immigration policies for international students and foreign workers, experts and amateurs are debating whether the ‘great migration’ to the Western world, specially the traditional Anglophone nations, is over.

The debate acquires greater significance for India because Indians have been a consistent source of global migration and constitute the world’s largest diaspora. Over 225,000 Indians renounced Indian citizenship in 2022, the highest in a 12-year span. In addition to the working-class migrating for employment, estimates high net-worth individuals (HNIs) leaving the country in high numbers over the past few years. India also remains one of the largest student out-migration countries (Source: Statista).

The recent announcement by Donald Trump, however, is not the only source of concern for Indians planning to move to greener pastures. In the past year, several countries have adopted an anti-immigration stance with stringent measures and tougher eligibility criteria for international students and foreign workers. Anti-immigration sentiment in some European countries has often targeted Indian migrants, particularly when discussing issues like asylum seekers or illegal immigration.

• According to the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) data, over a million Indians are waiting for green cards. The Congressional Research Service (CRS) estimated the backlog for Indians in employment-based categories to reach 21.90 lakh by 2030. That is estimated to take 195 years to clear!
• Trump has assured that the H-1B visa program, which allows skilled foreign workers to be employed in the United States, will not be terminated but his stance on potential revisions remains ambiguous.
• In the UK, following ‘anti-immigration’ street riots, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has hardened his stance against ‘illegal’ immigration and proclaimed ‘tough enforcement’. Recent changes in UK immigration policy, such as higher salary thresholds for skilled workers and restrictions on dependents for students and care workers has been dubbed restrictive. The new curb on bringing family members have already caused a drop in student numbers.
• Policy makers in Canada have argued that immigration to Canada in current numbers of over 400 000 per year, the highest in the Western world, is unsustainable and puts pressure on resources such as further worsening the country's current housing crisis. Canada has lowered the number of immigrants to be legally accepted every year, shut down its Parents & Grandparents Program, and restricted its Open Work Permit rules for family members of international students and foreign workers.
• Australia has allocated 185,000 places to the permanent migration program for 2024-25, down from 190,000 in the previous financial year.
• The French government has described immigration levels as ‘often insufferable’ and has introduced more restrictive immigration and asylum legislation. It has abolished full healthcare for undocumented people who had been in France at least three months.
• The Netherlands has introduced ‘the strictest admission rules in the European Union’, saying the country ‘can no longer bear the influx of immigrants’.
• Sweden has proposed harsh anti-migrant laws. Stockholm also has plans for a law obliging public sector workers to notify undocumented people to authorities.
• Finland wants to ban undocumented people from getting non-emergency healthcare. It has also restricted benefits to asylum-seekers.
• Last year, Germany reintroduced checks at all its land borders to combat illegal migration.

With the immigration noose tightening around their necks, should Indians rethink their idea of moving to another country? The opinion is divided and experts insist that it is important to distinguish between temporary and permanent migration - students are temporary migrants while skilled workers seek more permanent residency, and the intent of HNIs is a permanent move. With several countries facing acute labour shortage, the demand for skilled workers will not die down, experts posit.

It is also pertinent to note that countries are primarily pulling out their whips for illegal migration - in its first formal engagement with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, Trump’s administration has expressed its concerns over illegal migration from India to the United States. Last week, the US and India together identified some 18,000 Indian migrants who are in the US illegally and could be deported. In 2023-24, the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) deported over 1,100 Indian nationals as part of broader efforts targeting unauthorised migrants.

Yash Dubal, UK Immigration Expert and Director of A Y & J Solicitors, London (UK) thinks the UK still has more structured immigration environment compared to countries like the US, Canada, or many in Europe. While these nations face turbulent policy shifts and growing anti-immigration sentiments, the UK continues to provide a predictable framework.

“While recent policy shifts present challenges for some—particularly students and care workers—the broader system for skilled professionals and entrepreneurs remains intact. Migrants should carefully assess their goals and identify the right visa route. While the UK’s long-term migration pathways are selective, they remain accessible to skilled workers and business entrepreneurs,” Dubal added.

Nitish Jain, Founder & President, SP Jain Group, believes that despite stricter visa regulations the demand for skilled Indian talent will continue, particularly in high-impact sectors like technology, finance, and healthcare. “While immigration policies may shift, the ability to innovate and embrace change will always be a competitive advantage. The key to success in this changing landscape lies in agility—upskilling in emerging areas such as artificial intelligence and digital transformation, and exploring new markets that welcome global talent,” Jain said.

“Due to their robust healthcare and educations systems and the lucrative job opportunities, the US, UK, Canada and Australia remain top destinations. However, HNIs seeking financial stability, investor friendly policies, better tax regimes, and a globally mobile lifestyle, are opting for destinations like UAE and Singapore. Destinations like Croatia and Malta are also gaining popularity amongst Indian HNIs,” Bharat S Rai, Managing Director of Delhi-headquartered Raizing Group, said.