H-1B visa fee shock: What it means for India, China, and the US? Who wins, who loses? EXPLAINED

US President Donald Trump shook the tech industry last Friday, September 19, by announcing a whopping fee hike in H-1B visas, raising the cost to $100,000, nearly 50 times the previous fee. The announcement triggered immediate chaos in the United States: Silicon Valley companies warned employees against travelling abroad, foreign workers rushed to book return flights, and immigration lawyers worked overtime to decode the order.

On September 20, the White House clarified that the fee would apply only to new applications and would be a one-time charge.

Nevertheless, despite the clarification, the future of the H-1B programme— long criticised for undercutting American workers but praised for bringing in top global talent—remains uncertain.

Here's how the new rules may impact Indian and Chinese professionals, and American industries.

How will the changes in the immigration rules impact the Indian & Chinese tech professionals?

India by far remains the largest beneficiary of H-1B visas, accounting for 71% of approved applications last year, while China was a distant second at 11.7%, according to US government data.

India’s $283 billion IT sector, which earns around 57% of its revenue from the United States, is expected to be hit hard. Tech veterans, analysts, and economists say the $100,000 H-1B visa fee will disrupt the long-standing practice of rotating skilled talent into US-based projects.

IT firms with clients such as Apple, JPMorgan Chase, Walmart, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet's Google may now pause onshore rotations, accelerate offshore delivery, and ramp up hiring of US citizens, Reuters reported.

However, experts predict that while India or China may feel the immediate impact, the ripple effects could be even more far-reaching within the United States.

As per BBC, Indian outsourcing giants like TCS and Infosys have already begun building local workforces and shifting delivery offshore.

"With employers reluctant to commit to the heavy cost of sponsorship, we could see greater reliance on remote contracting, offshore delivery and gig workers," Aditya Narayan Mishra of CIEL HR, a leading staffing firm, told BBC.

How will it impact US industries?

Experts warn that the fee hike will force US companies to radically change their hiring policies and offshore significant amounts of their operations, potentially undermining US innovation and competitiveness.

Gil Guerra, an immigration policy analyst, said, “The demand for new workers in fields like tech and medicine [in US] is projected to increase (albeit in uneven ways), and given how specialised and critical these fields are, a shortage that lasts even a few years could have a serious impact on the US economy and national well-being.”

Additionally, more international students from India and China will now consider alternative destinations for study, which could impact the American university system.

Who will benefit most?

Several countries are strengthening their tech and STEM talent pools and are positioning themselves to attract global talent priced out of US jobs due to the H-1B visa fee hike.

Canada, due to its strategic location, might be the biggest beneficiary of the policy change. Meanwhile, the UK's “Global Talent Task Force” is working to lure top global scientists, including academics and digital experts. Germany has already invited H-1B visa holders to look for jobs there.