How much will Trump's tariff dividend cost the US government? Hint: It is double the tariff revenue generated

US President Donald Trump's proposal to send $2,000 as a tariff dividend to Americans may cost $600 billion each year, according to USA Today, which cited the nonprofit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The $600 billion cost is double the revenue that the United States is expected to generate through tariffs announced under the Trump administration.

Although the president did not explain the details of the $2,000 tariff dividend, the analysis cited in the report assumed the latest proposal to be designed similarly to the COVID-19 stimulus provided to Americans. The 2020 stimulus included payments for individual taxpayers earning up to $75,000 or $1,50,000 for joint income filers.

How much revenue US may generate from tariffs?

According to a report by Fortune, the tariffs proposed under the Trump administration will generate $300 billion every year.

What did Trump promise?

On Sunday, Trump targeted people who criticised tariffs and promised a dividend of at least $2,000 per person, excluding high-income individuals.

In a post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump wrote, “People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are now the Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k’s are Highest EVER.”

He pledged dividends to Americans and said, “We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion. Record Investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place. A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”

Supreme Court raised questions over Trump's tariffs

Trump's proposal followed the Supreme Court's arguments on 5 November, during which several justices expressed scepticism about the tariffs. This indicated that many tariffs could be struck down, possibly leading to refunds surpassing $100 billion, Bloomberg reported.

Judges questioned whether an emergency law gives Trump “near-limitless power” to create and change import duties.

Trump cautioned that a court ruling against him would be a “disaster” for the US.

The case involves Trump’s 2 April “Liberation Day” tariffs, which levy taxes from 10% to 50% on most US imports based on their country of origin. He claims these tariffs are justified t as a measure to address the longstanding national trade deficit.

A question about the administration’s justification for tariffs is whether the revenue they generate essentially acts as taxes, which Chief Justice John Roberts said have “always been the core power of Congress,” the report noted.