Insider trading over US-Iran war? White House sends warning to staff, asks officials not to bet on prediction markets

The White House sent an internal email to its staff, warning them against improperly using their positions to place bets in the futures market, Reuters and Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

The email was sent on 24 March, a day after US President Donald Trump announced a brief pause in Iran strikes. It advised employees against placing trades on financial markets and fast-growing event betting platforms.

The warning came at a time when a series of well-timed and profitable bets preceded major decisions taken by Trump, especially on Iran and Venezuela, raising questions on the scope of insider trading linked to sensitive information.

“While he (Donald Trump) seeks a strong and profitable stock market for everyone, members of Congress and other government officials should be prohibited from using nonpublic information for financial benefit,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle was quoted as saying by Reuters in a statement.

“The only special interest that will ever guide President Trump is the best interest of the American people.”

The Journal, which previously reported the news, said the announcement was made in a staff-wide email from the White House management office.

Well-timed bets on Trump decisions raise eyebrows

A day before the email was sent to White House staffers, Trump, on 23 March, in a social media post, cited “productive conversations” with Iran, and announced a five-day break on his threat to destroy Iranian power plants.

However, just 15 minutes before Trump's Truth Social announcement, futures on oil stocks worth billions changed hands in a matter of a few minutes. The social media post sent crude prices tumbling 15% and equities soaring.

Around 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures contracts changed hands 15 minutes before Trump's post, which sent crude oil prices below $100 and made other assets volatile. The trading took place between 6:49 am and 6:50 am New York time on 23 March, a quarter hour after the post said there had been “productive conversations” in recent days with Tehran to end the war in Iran.

The average for the same time period over the previous five trading days was about 700 lots or 700,000 barrels. Trump posted on Truth Social at around 7:05 am that day.

According to a report by Bloomberg, the notional value of the trade was $580 million.

Consistent pattern

This pattern of uncanny foresight was noticed before the US-Iran war as well. In January, an anonymous Polymarket user made profits of $400,000 by betting on the removal of former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro from his office, hours before the US army captured him from his residence.

In a similar bet, another user made a $500,000 profit by predicting a US strike on Iran and the removal of Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, just hours before the actual strikes began on 28 February.

“All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of non-public information for financial benefit. However, any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting,” Ingle said, according to Bloomberg.

Federal employees are banned from gambling while on government property and ethics rules prohibit the use of non-public government information for personal gain. However, there has been no evidence that White House officials were involved in such trading.