New York City mayor election: Mamdani vs Cuomo - who stands a stronger chance? What numbers say

New York City’s mayoral race has reached its final phase, with voting underway ahead of the 4 November election to decide who will become the next leader of the city. At the centre of the New York mayor election are Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani versus former New York governor and Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo versus Republican Curtis Sliwa.

The air is charged up as more and more people have come to cast their votes in the New York mayor election. So far, according to the New York City Board of Elections, 734,317 early votes have been cast in the past nine days. According to the New York City Board of Elections, Sunday alone saw a historic turnout of 151,212 early voters, the highest single-day total ever recorded in the city's history.

With the latest pollster indications, the primary contest is shaping up to be a primary battle between Zohran Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo. The Republican nominee, Curtis Sliwa, is trailing behind both Cuomo and Mamdani.

Mamdani vs Cuomo - who stands a stronger chance? Pollsters predict

Zohran Mamdani has emerged as the frontrunner in the New York City mayoral race, with two polls indicating that he holds a double-digit lead over Andrew Cuomo.

According to the latest RealClearPolitics average, Zohran Mamdani (Democrat) is leading with 45.8% support; Andrew Cuomo (Independent) trails with 31.1% – 14.7 points behind Mamdani; and Curtis Sliwa (Republican) stands at 17.3% support – 28.5 points behind Mamdani.

A recent Quinnipiac University poll found Mamdani leading with 43% support, compared with Cuomo’s 33%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa trailing at 14%. On 10 October, it showed Mamdani leading with 46% support, while Cuomo trailed at the same 33%.

According to AtlasIntel, another pollster, ranked most accurate in 2024 for the NYC mayoral elections, Mamdani leads with 43.9% of the vote (+3.3 since Oct. 30), while Cuomo trails close behind at 39.4% (+5.4 since 30 October).

“With Sliwa dropping 8.6 percentage points, the gap between Mamdani and Cuomo decreased to 4.5 percentage points,” it said.

According to a new Suffolk University poll released on 27 October, Mamdani holds 44% support among likely voters, while Cuomo catching up at 34%. In September, Suffolk polling showed Mamdani ahead of Cuomo by 20 percentage points.

Mamdani’s comfortable victory over Cuomo in the June primary generated excitement from the party’s more progressive wing and apprehension among the party establishment.

While no guaranteed outcome can be assumed, it has started to look like New York City may have a socialist mayor.

Trump's latest endorsement

Late on Monday and ahead of the 4 November New York mayor election, Republican President Donald Trump extended support to Andrew Cuomo, despite having a member of his party contesting the polls.

He also threatened to restrict New York City's federal funds if Zohran Mamdani is elected to power.

In a post on Truth Social, Donald Trump said, “If Communist Candidate Zohran Mamdani wins the Election for Mayor of New York City, it is highly unlikely that I will be contributing Federal Funds, other than the very minimum as required, to my beloved first home, because of the fact that, as a Communist, this once great City has ZERO chance of success, or even survival!”

Trump also took a swipe at the Republican nominee, saying any vote for him would help Zohran Mamdani in New York mayor election.

“We must also remember this — A vote for Curtis Sliwa (who looks much better without the beret!) is a vote for Mamdani. Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice."

Andrew Cuomo has also received the endorsement from Elon Musk. But it is not clear whether his last-minute support will sway voters.

Former US President Barack Obama, meanwhile, recently called New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani and praised his campaign and offered to be a "sounding board" in the future.

While Obama has not formally endorsed Mamdani, he reportedly told him that he was invested in his success beyond the election.

(With agency inputs)