Tough time for Trump ahead? Major Supreme Court rulings loom on elections, citizenship, immigration: What to expect

In the coming weeks, US President Donald Trump will learn whether the Supreme Court's rejection of his signature tariffs was an isolated setback or a sign of more adverse rulings to come.

USA Today reported on Wednesday (local time) that, before adjourning for the summer, the Supreme Court must rule on at least 30 more cases, including a few that will test Trump's broad view of presidential power. Some of the outstanding decisions could also have implications for the upcoming midterm elections in November.

While two pending cases could boost protections for gun owners’ rights, other rulings will decide whether states can ban transgender athletes from competing on female sports teams, whether the maker of the popular Roundup weedkiller can face lawsuits over alleged cancer risks without adequate warnings, and whether the federal government can systematically turn away asylum seekers before they reach the US-Mexico border.

By early July, here is a list of cases that are expected to be decided:

1. Birthright citizenship

After the Supreme Court ruled against Trump's tariffs in January this year, the US President predicted that the justices would also reject his efforts to restrict eligibility for automatic US citizenship. On the first day of his second term, Trump signed an executive order asking federal agencies not to recognise the citizenship of babies born in the US if neither parent is a citizen or lawful permanent resident. The order is widely seen as facing significant legal hurdles, and the justices have multiple ways to block it.

According to reports, the justices could deliver a verdict stating that Trump's order violates the 14th Amendment's citizenship guarantee to "all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof." Alternatively, the court could rule against the President more narrowly by stating that his executive order violates a 1952 immigration law.

2. Trans athletes

In the past, the LGBTQ+ community has suffered several setbacks, including a decision announced in March when the Supreme Court rejected Colorado's ban on "conversion therapy" for young people. The court noted that the ban infringed upon the free speech rights of a Christian counsellor. Separately, the justices are also expected to support efforts in more than half the states to bar transgender women and girls from competing on female sports teams. However, the court may stop short of deciding whether states are required to impose such bans, instead ruling only on whether they are allowed to do so.

3. Gun rights

Almost four years after the Supreme Court expanded gun rights by creating a new "historical tradition" test for firearm regulations, the justices continue to debate how that test should be applied to several laws. During arguments in a case in January, the justices appeared inclined to invalidate a Hawaii law requiring gun owners to obtain permission before carrying firearms into stores or other private properties open to the public. In the past, property owners have long had the right to restrict weapons on their premises. However, Hawaii and several other Democrat-led states reversed the default rule by banning firearms unless owners explicitly allow them, instead of permitting guns unless they are specifically prohibited.

In another gun rights case, the justices may loosen a federal law aimed at keeping firearms out of the hands of dangerous or irresponsible individuals.

4. Weedkiller cancer claims

A legal battle is currently underway over whether the popular Roundup weedkiller causes cancer. The dispute could either be limited or intensified, depending on whether the justices allow the manufacturer to face lawsuits for allegedly failing to warn consumers about potential cancer risks linked to its active ingredient, glyphosate. While the case does not directly involve the US President, he is reportedly backing Bayer, which acquired Roundup maker Monsanto in 2018.

5. Federal Reserve and independent agencies

While Supreme Court justices appeared unlikely to allow Trump to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, in another case, a majority of justices seemed prepared to back Trump on the question of presidential authority over other independent agencies. A ruling in such a landmark case could reshape the functioning of more than a dozen agencies and shift greater power from Congress to the White House.

6. Mail-in ballots and campaign spending

In what is considered one of the biggest cases of the term, the Supreme Court has already shaken up this year's midterm elections. On April 29, a sharply split court significantly reduced the scope of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The justices made it more difficult for racial minorities to challenge electoral maps on grounds of discrimination.

Additionally, Republicans have asked the justices to reject some states' grace periods for late-arriving mailed ballots. The case will test Mississippi's law allowing absentee ballots mailed by Election Day to be counted if they are received within five days.

Republicans, including Vice President JD Vance, are also hoping the justices will scrap limits on how much parties can spend in coordination with candidates.

7. Immigration curbs

In yet another battle over presidential power, Trump has argued that courts do not have the authority to intervene in his decision to end deportation protections for Syrians and Haitians. Scaling back a humanitarian program that protects hundreds of thousands of immigrants is a key part of Trump’s broader push to tighten immigration policies.

With several politically and socially significant cases still pending, the coming weeks are expected to be crucial for Trump’s presidency.