Trump admin's sanctions may leave 48 million barrels of Russian oil stranded at sea

US sanctions on Russian oil companies, which are set to take effect on Friday, may leave nearly 48 million barrels of crude oil stranded at sea, prompting dozens of tankers to seek alternative destinations, according to a report by Bloomberg.

Last month, the Trump administration's decision to blacklist major oil firms Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC marked perhaps its most assertive action against Russia, as the US President seeks to increase pressure on the Kremlin regarding the conflict in Ukraine.

Pressure on Asian buyers

With the restrictions now just hours away, Asian buyers are racing against time. Indian refineries are hurriedly seeking replacement supplies, booking oil tankers from the Middle East at a rate that has already elevated freight rates for the route to nearly a five-year high. Meanwhile, traders are closely looking for alternative purchasers, if any, for Lukoil and Rosneft crude that is already at sea, the report said.

“Russian export flows are holding up, but it’s not finding its way through to their destinations yet,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy for ING Groep NV, told the news portal. “If that continues and finally backs up all the way, we could start seeing supply falling, which will be a concern to markets.”

The report cited data from analytics firm Kpler, which showed that nearly 48 million barrels of Rosneft and Lukoil crude, primarily Urals and ESPO grades, are currently in transit or being loaded. This includes around 50 tankers heading toward China and India, as well as others without a destination or aiming for smaller ports, spread across the Baltic to the South China Sea, as intermediaries try to distance themselves from the trade.

Russia, keen to keep oil flowing, has maintained sizable seaborne shipments of around 3.4 million barrels per day, according to Bloomberg data.

Notably, not all of these barrels will necessarily find a market, even in Asia’s largest markets. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, China and India have absorbed the majority of Russia’s exports and maintain strong connections with Moscow.

Both countries, however, are also cautious about becoming involved in looming secondary sanctions, as the US ramps up its pressure on any entity that enables Russian exports. The scope of those restrictions, and Washington’s willingness to enforce them, will determine exactly how much oil reaches refiners, the report said.

“It’s painful, but it’s painful only for three or four months,” Adam Lanning, senior tanker market analyst at shipbroker SSY, told the news portal. “What we’ll likely see happening in the months ahead is, as we’ve seen, the markets start to adjust and will find workarounds to import that crude without coming under scrutiny,” Lanning said.