As Donald Trump claims victory in the Electoral College, securing his return to the White House, the national popular vote count continues across the United States. As of Thursday afternoon, Trump holds a firm lead of nearly 4.6 million votes over Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic contender. If the lead holds, Trump would become the first Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote in 20 years—a symbolic achievement in an election ultimately determined by electoral votes.
Trump leads in Popular Vote
As of Thursday afternoon, Trump has amassed 72.77 million votes, outpacing Harris, who has garnered 68.1 million votes. This lead could signify a rare popular vote win for the GOP, which has not achieved this feat since former President George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign. Bush won that race with 50.7% of the popular vote, defeating Democratic opponent John Kerry.
This potential milestone for Trump is especially significant given his previous popular vote performances. In 2016, Trump won the Electoral College against Hillary Clinton but lost the popular vote by nearly 2.9 million votes. In 2020, Trump was outvoted by his opponent, Joe Biden, who earned a record-breaking 81 million votes—just over 51% of the total, according to the American Presidency Project.
The Popular Vote’s role in US Presidential elections
In the US presidential election system, the candidate who wins the national popular vote does not necessarily become president. Instead, the outcome depends on the Electoral College, in which each state’s electoral votes are awarded to the candidate with the most votes in that state. This arrangement has historically meant that a candidate could lose the popular vote but still secure the presidency by winning critical swing states. This was the case for Trump in 2016, as well as for other presidents, including George W. Bush in 2000.
Despite the popular vote's lack of formal power in determining the presidential victor, it carries symbolic weight, reflecting the direct preference of American voters. Winning the popular vote is often regarded as a "moral victory" for candidates, bolstering claims of broad support and mandate.
Republican Popular Vote could end 20 year drought
Should Trump’s popular vote lead hold, he would break a two-decade streak of Democratic dominance in the national popular vote. The last time a Republican candidate won the popular vote was in 2004, when George W. Bush secured his second term in office. In the elections that followed, Democrats claimed the popular vote consistently, with Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, and Joe Biden in 2020.
Potential implications of a Trump Popular Vote victory
Although the popular vote remains a symbolic measure rather than a determining factor now, a win for Trump could shift discussions on Republican appeal. Securing both the Electoral College and the popular vote may reinforce his campaign’s standing with GOP supporters, particularly among demographics critical to the 2024 election, including swing voters in key states.
The counting of ballots is expected to continue through the week, as results from key states are finalized. Trump’s return to the White House, with a potential popular vote victory, would mark an exceptional outcome in his political career, achieving a result he pursued in his three presidential campaigns.
