US Election Results 2024: 5 reasons why Donald Trump, Kamala Harris have equal chance of winning Presidential race
US Election Results 2024: Who will be the next US president is still unclear, but here are key poll findings that might favour Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the ongoing polls.
Democrat candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump are in an "incredibly" close contest in the historic 2024 US presidential race. The race to become the 47th US president is said to be on a "razor-thin margin". Reports suggest that nearly every poll in the seven swing states showed the race to be a tossup between Harris and Trump.
The final 2024 election surveys or polling data released by the Morning Consult and the John Zogby Strategies poll showed Harris in the lead. Prominent American political scientist Ian Bremmer said he views Trump as the “very narrow favourite.”
"But this is a low-conviction view, reflecting the closeness of polling and polls over the weekend that showed him surprisingly weak in Republican-leaning states," Bremmer told news agency ANI.
The key to US election results lies in seven swing states – Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Who will be the next US president is still unclear, but here are key factors that might favour Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the ongoing polls:
US Election Results: Why Donald Trump might win?
According to a Morning Consult analysis of its surveys and polls:
1. Trump is favoured over Harris in swing states over his immigration policy. Former President Trump has proposed mass deportations. According to the Associated Press, Trump has vowed to deport not only “criminals,” a promise he shares with Harris, but also Haitians living legally in Springfield and even people he has denigrated as “pro-Hamas radicals” protesting on college campuses.
2. Donald Trump’s campaign also capitalises on the economy, which is the number one issue for voters. The voters in swing states seem to trust Trump more than Harris regarding the national economy. Trump has retained a slim advantage on the economy in general despite Harris slamming his tariff policies. Across the seven battlegrounds, voters polled for the Bloomberg/Morning Consult swing states poll have been consistent in listing the economy as their top priority.
3. Voters in swing states may also favour Trump for his foreign policies and his ideas for tackling the Middle East conflict.
4. Trump is also trusted among voters for his policies around national security, crime and public safety.
5. Nationally, Trump's support among younger voters looked stronger than it was in 2020, according to the Morning Consult analysis. It said that at the state level, Trump has made "big gains among young voters." Hence, he could benefit from increased support among younger and nonwhite voters.
Earlier, the ABC News/Ipsos poll in October also showed that Trump was believed to tackle the issues of immigration, the economy, inflation, and the Middle East conflict better than Harris.
US Election Results: Why Kamala Harris might win?
1. The main reason why Harris could is because she is neither Trump nor Joe Biden, BBC reported. It added that Harris will be hoping voters – especially moderate Republicans and independents – see her as a candidate of stability. Meanwhile, early surveys had suggested that voters had real concerns about Biden’s fitness for office, which is not the case with Harris.
2. Meanwhile, according to a Morning Consult analysis of its surveys and polls, the vice president is more popular than Trump and has consistently generated more positive news coverage. She is said to have garnered better news coverage than Trump since she became the nominee.
3. Surveyed voters also perceive Harris more favourably, as compared to Joe Biden and Donald Trump, on a number of key characteristics – including "good health", age, mental fitness, honesty, trustworthiness, "strong leader," and recklessness.
4. Harris performed better than Biden against Trump on 2024's key issues, which include climate, abortion, gun policy, climate change, education, health care, and protecting US democracy. (See the chart below)
5. The issue of "abortion" became more prominent in the 2024 elections. Voters in nine states will be deciding whether their state constitutions should guarantee a right to abortion, weighing ballot measures that are expected to spur turnout for a range of crucial races. Currently, 13 states are enforcing bans at all stages of pregnancy, with some exceptions.
Vice President Kamala Harris calls them “Trump abortion bans". Harris, meanwhile, has portrayed herself as a direct, consistent advocate for reproductive health and rights, including Black maternal health.
Morning Consult Political Intelligence surveyed thousands of registered US voters on how they view their politicians at the national and state levels and whom they currently plan to vote for.
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Business NewsNewsUs NewsUS Election Results 2024: 5 reasons why Donald Trump, Kamala Harris have equal chance of winning Presidential race
First Published:6 Nov 2024, 12:05 AM IST
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