US Elections 2024: What polls indicate for Kamala Harris, Donald Trump

US Elections 2024: With only six weeks left for the presidential battle between US Vice President Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump, in November, Americans began casting their first in-person votes on Friday. US states of Virginia, South Dakota and Minnesota saw voters lining up to cast their ballots.

As Kamala Harris took over the reins from US President Joe Biden, numerous polls have shown a growth of chances for the Democratic nominee. According to a survey by The Economist, the latest polling averages show Harris leading at 50, which is eight points ahead of Donald Trump’s average of 46.

Another survey by Outward Intelligence on September 20, shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 6.6 points. The survey shows Harris with 51.2% support among likely voters, while Trump follows at 44.6%. Meanwhile, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received only 2.4% of the vote, with all other candidates polling below 1%. Other post-debate polls such as the Philadelphia Inquirer, New York Times, and Siena College also show Harris with 50% and Trump with 46%.

Kamala Harris leading in Pennsylvania

A poll conducted by USA Today and Suffolk University, released on September 16, shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state, by 49-46%. The survey of 500 residents in the state has a margin of error of 4.4%, indicating that the race remains too close to call.

The poll also highlighted that Harris has gained significant support among young voters and people of colour, showing a 24-point shift among young voters, an 18-point increase among Hispanics, and a 17-point gain among Black voters, further reported USA Today.

What Electoral College votes could say

In addition to polls, prominent American statistician Nate Silver revealed that Kamala Harris has a 48.9% chance of winning the popular vote, giving her nearly a 3% advantage over Trump, who stands at 46%, according to USA Today. Notably, Silver’s projections suggest that Harris has a 25% chance of winning the popular vote while losing in the Electoral College, the system used in the US to elect the president.

Silver’s prediction showed Trump had a 56.2% chance of winning the electoral college vote, while Harris trailed at 43.5%.