US intelligence believes Iran still has ‘significant’ missile launching capabilities as the war continues

For the past 35 days, the US and Israel have been relentlessly dropping bombs and launching missiles at Iran, including on some of the Islamic Republic’s key strategic assets. When the US announced the launch of Operation Epic Fury, one of the declared objectives was to obliterate Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and production facilities.

Iran's missile arsenal

Iran has the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, including ballistic and cruise missiles. Iranian missiles could potentially strike any locations in the Middle East, including Israel, and for a very long time, Washington and Jerusalem have been trying to eliminate this threat for this very reason.

How many missiles did Iran have?

Before the war began, US intelligence estimated that Iran had a missile arsenal of anywhere between 1,500 and 3,000, including short-range and medium-range systems.

On the first day of the conflict, Iran launched around 90 missiles, which have now come down to 10-30 a day. According to analysts, this is a sign that Iran’s stockpile is depleting as a result of the prolonged conflict and the targeted US-Israeli strikes on Tehran’s missile infrastructure, including production and storage facilities.

What US intelligence assessments say

But, according to the latest US intelligence assessments, nearly half of Iran’s missile launchers are still intact, CNN has reported.

“They are still very much poised to wreak absolute havoc throughout the entire region,” a source told CNN.

It is not just missiles; the US intelligence also believes that another lethal weapon in Iran’s arsenal, its kamikaze drones, thousands of them, are also still intact.

The report, however, added that the ‘’intact’ missiles may also include launchers that are currently inaccessible, such as those buried underground by strikes but not destroyed.

Last week, Reuters had also revealed that the US now believes it did not destroy as many Iranian missiles as it had initially thought.

Reuters, citing five people familiar with the US intelligence, reported that Washington can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran’s missile arsenal.

On Iranian drones, too, the Reuters report had painted a similar picture.

Intelligence assessments vs public claims

The intelligence assessment is vastly different from the public position of the Donald Trump administration. Many, including Trump, have repeatedly insisted that the US has significantly destroyed Iran’s ability to produce and launch missiles.

“Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed, and their weapons factories and rocket launchers are being blown to pieces, very few of them left,” Trump had said in his address to the nation on Wednesday.

Iran can still produce over 100 missiles a month

Before the war, the US and Israel had estimated that Iran was producing over 100 ballistic missiles per month. Despite some of its production facilities being hit, Iran has focused on rapidly accelerating production to replace its used or destroyed inventory.

Last month, an Israeli military spokesperson had said that Iran could build up an arsenal of up to 8000 ballistic missiles by 2027 if it continued rebuilding its missile program, which was targeted in the US-Israeli strikes in June 2025.