United States only confident that about one-third of Iran’s missile arsenal, drones have been destroyed so far

The US-Israeli attack on Iran is nearing its one-month mark and one of the declared objectives of Operation Epic Fury was to destroy Tehran's missile arsenal and production capacity. Right from the initial hours, the US and Israel targeted Iran’s missile infrastructure and neutralized a large chunk of missile launchers.

But four weeks into the war, contrary to US estimates, Iran has continued to launch missiles on a daily basis at Israel and Washington’s allies across the Middle East. That is because the US may not have destroyed as many Iranian missiles as it had initially thought.

Only one-third of missiles destroyed

Reuters, citing five people familiar with the US intelligence, reported that Washington can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran’s missile arsenal.

The status of around another third is less clear, but bombings likely damaged, destroyed, or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers, four of the sources told Reuters.

Another source told Reuters that the intelligence was similar for Iran’s drone capability, saying there was some degree of certainty about a third having been destroyed.

US may never know the real number

The assessment shows that while most of Iran’s missiles are either destroyed or inaccessible, Tehran still has a significant missile inventory and may be able to recover some buried or damaged missiles once fighting stops.

One source said that part of the problem is determining how many Iranian missiles were stockpiled in underground bunkers before the war started. The US has not disclosed its estimate of the size of Iran’s pre-war missile stockpile.

A senior US official voices skepticism about the United States’ ability to accurately assess Iran’s missile capabilities, in part because it is unclear how many are underground and accessible in some way. “I don’t know if we’ll ever have an accurate number,” the official said.

Iran has very few rockets left: Trump

The report added that the intelligence stands in contrast to US President Donald Trump’s public remarks yesterday that Iran has “very few rockets left”. He also appeared to acknowledge the threat from remaining Iranian missiles and drones to any future US operations to safeguard the economically vital Strait of Hormuz.

US strikes have hit more than 10,000 Iranian military targets as of Wednesday and, according to Central Command, have sunk 92 percent of the Iranian navy’s large vessels.

Still, Central Command has declined to state precisely how much of Iran’s missile or drone capability has been destroyed.

Iran says it has plenty of missiles

Despite acknowledging that some of its facilities have been hit, Iran has maintained that there were no missile stockpiling shortages. The IRGC also claimed that its wartime missile production was continuing unaffected.

Iran's attempted strike on Diego Garcia

Last week, Iran also shocked the world after it launched two ballistic missiles toward the US-UK military airbase on Diego Garcia, located in the Indian Ocean, way beyond the 2,000 kilometres range of Tehran’s until now known medium-range ballistic missiles.

Though one missile failed in flight, and the other was intercepted by a US interceptor, Iran’s ability to strike a military base located 3,800 kilometres away has taken everyone by surprise. And to make matters worse, experts are yet to decipher how Iran managed to pull it off.