US Presidential polls 2024: Will Donald Trump be next US President? Here’s what betting markets predict

With less than three weeks until the presidential election, polls show a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. However, prediction markets tell a different story, with shifting odds reflecting the potential outcomes of the election. Political observers and analysts closely monitor these changing probabilities for a Harris or Trump victory.

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There are increasing whispers that an individual or a group may be influencing Trump’s odds on the betting platform Polymarket, having placed a series of substantial bets totalling $30 million, according to a report by Business Insider.

What does the prediction say?

Election Betting Odds, which aggregates data from the major markets, shows Trump has a 57% chance, the largest margin in his favour since 29 July, up from about 48% at the end of September.

Other betting sites also reflect this trend: Betfair gives Trump a roughly 58% chance of victory, Kalshi at 57%, and Smarkets at 58%.

On Polymarket, the odds have shifted significantly, with Trump now holding a 60% chance of winning compared to Harris's 40%. This shift has been fueled by four accounts that collectively placed over $30 million in bets, as confirmed by Reuters, citing a source.

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This has led political pundits and social media users to speculate whether certain high-profile Americans might influence these betting trends.

Meanwhile, PredictIt shows a recent shift in sentiment, with traders now favouring Trump 54% to 49%. This marks the first time since late July that Harris has dropped below 50% support on the platform.

Status quo in swing states

According to The New York Times, Pennsylvania is considered the most crucial swing state in this election, with its 19 electoral votesvital for both candidates’ paths to victory.

Groups supporting Trump and Harris are expected to spend over $138 million on TV and radio ads from late September until Election Day, and both candidates have dedicated significant time to campaigning there.

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Polling analysis from FiveThirtyEight attributed this importance to strong anti-Trump sentiments, broader acceptance of Biden among various Democratic voter groups, and a growing non-white population in the state over the past two decades. Generally, Asian, Black, and Hispanic voters tend to lean more Democratic.

Moreover, former President Obama will join the Democratic nominee in Georgia on 24 October, while former First Lady Michelle Obama is scheduled to campaign with Vice President Kamala Harris in Michigan on October 26, Bloomberg reported citing a senior campaign official who requested anonymity.

The report further said that these get-out-the-vote events will be the first time Harris shares the campaign trail with either Obama during this election cycle.

Bloomberg reported that it will mark Michelle Obama’s inaugural appearance in the battleground states for Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

(With inputs from agencies)