US unemployment claims rise amid stagnant labour market, government shutdown

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits saw a marginal rise during the final week of September, according to Reuters, citing data from Haver Analytics.

This suggests that while layoffs remain at a low level, the pace of hiring has largely stalled.

The US labour market currently appears stagnant, with businesses demonstrating a reluctance to hire new staff on a significant scale, even if they are not engaging in widespread redundancies. Economists have attributed this paralysis to a combination of factors, including President Donald Trump's trade and immigration policies, alongside the increasing prevalence of artificial intelligence, both of which have reportedly dampened labour demand and supply.

Adding to the complexity, a US government shutdown, now in its sixth day, has led to the suspension of official data collection and publication. This complicates crucial decision-making for policymakers at the Federal Reserve, as well as for investors and households.

Key Figures

• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 224,269 for the week ending 27 September, up from 218,589 the previous week, as calculated by Haver Analytics.
• Despite the government funding lapse, states have continued to collect unemployment claims data, which remains accessible within the Labor Department's database.
• The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid – often used as a proxy for hiring trends – increased to a seasonally adjusted 1.921 million during the week ending 20 September, from 1.916 million in the prior week, according to Haver Analytics' estimates.

Economic Data Delays

Crucially, September's employment report, originally scheduled for last Friday, has been delayed. Furthermore, reports on consumer prices, producer inflation and retail sales, all due next week, are also unlikely to be published as scheduled.

Federal Reserve Policy

The US central bank resumed its easing policy in September, reducing its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 4.00%-4.25% range, in an effort to support the labour market. However, with the full inflationary impact of tariffs yet to materialise, a further rate cut this month is far from guaranteed.