History in making? Kalshi users bet this US govt shutdown will exceed last Trump era's 35 days record

Users on prediction market Kalshi have bet on United States shutdown exceeding 35 days. If they are right, it would be the longest such stalemate for the US government in history.

Punters on prediction markets are betting big money that the United States government shutdown will last for more than 35 days. Later this number jumped to 37.5 days. At time of writing, the prediction was at 33.8 days.

Kalshi predicts US shutdown to last over 35 days

In a post on X, the official Kalshi account stated, “The US government shutdown is now forecasted to last more than 35 days. This would make it the longest in history.”

Notably, the longest US government shutdown happened the last time Donald Trump was President, and lasted 35 days.

Kalshi is a prediction market that allows users to bet on the outcomes of a range of events, such as elections, the Fed rate cuts, Time magazine's cover, sports winners, and more. Its biggest competitor is billionaire Shayne Coplan-run Polymarkets.

Why Has the US Government Shut Down?

The US government shutdown began on 1 October, after Republicans and Democrats failed to reach an agreement on government funding, leading to the furlough of more than 7,00,000 federal workers.

The shutdown stalemate centers on the future of Affordable Care Act subsidies, set to expire at year’s end. Republicans argue the issue can be addressed later, while Democrats push to resolve it immediately to prevent soaring insurance rates.

Essential services such as air traffic control and border operations continue, but numerous public services have been delayed or suspended.

The impasse has created a ripple effect across federal institutions, including USCIS, the State Department, and the Department of Homeland Security, complicating visa processing, asylum hearings, and now citizenship ceremonies.

With both sides dug in, trust low, and deadlines approaching, the path to ending the shutdown remains uncertain.