Voters prefer Trump, not just his policies

Summary
The former president stands improbably on the brink of popularity.No one can say precisely whether it’s due to hysterical Democrats tossing unhinged insults at the Republican presidential nominee, anger over the inflation of the Biden-Harris era, exhaustion with the never-ending culture war against American tradition, or perhaps the inability of the vice president to make a case for her candidacy. But quite unexpectedly Donald Trump is becoming less controversial.
For years, even many of his voters had found him to be a distasteful necessity in countering the depredations of the Washington establishment and the progressive left. But something new is happening. Whatever the cause, voters increasingly view Mr. Trump not as simply an effective tool to defend their rights, but someone they like. Perhaps some view him as a pleasingly blunt instrument to address societal nonsense. Or maybe after a few assassination attempts voters have decided to cut him some slack. There is still no guarantee he’ll win what seems to be a very close presidential race. But Mr. Trump now stands on the brink of popularity.
Jeffrey Jones of Gallup reports a remarkable rise in Americans’ opinion of the former president. For the first time in Mr. Trump’s three runs for president, Gallup surveys find that more U.S. adults have a favorable view of him than express an unfavorable view. Also for the first time, Donald Trump is viewed more favorably than his opponent.
It’s still close. Mr. Trump is viewed favorably by 50% of U.S. adults and unfavorably by 48%, according to Gallup. Meanwhile the numbers are reversed for the vice president, with 48% viewing Kamala Harris favorably and 50% holding an unfavorable opinion.
Even in Mr. Trump’s winning election year of 2016, Gallup found just 36% of U.S. adults had a favorable view of him, compared with 61% with a negative view. Hillary Clinton had an edge on this question of nine percentage points, yet still lost to him. Americans figured they needed him to do a job and they didn’t have to like him.
They seem to like the job that he did, which may be one of the reasons they increasingly like him, too. It’s not just reflected in the Gallup results. The Journal’s Aaron Zitner reports:
Donald Trump has opened a narrow lead in the presidential race, as voters have adopted a more positive view of his agenda and past performance and a more negative view of Kamala Harris, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds…
Views of Harris have turned more negative since August, when equal shares of voters viewed her favorably and unfavorably. Now, the unfavorable views are dominant by 8 percentage points, 53% to 45%. Moreover, voters give Harris her worst job rating as vice president in the three times the Journal has asked about it since July, with 42% approving and 54% disapproving of her performance.
By contrast, views of Trump have turned rosier. Voters recall his time as president more positively than at any point in this election cycle, with 52% approving and 48% disapproving of his performance in office—a 4-point positive job rating that contrasts with the 12-point negative rating for Harris.
Especially impressive is that Mr. Trump’s rise is occurring while he is being significantly outspent in this year’s campaign. Mr. Zitner notes:
Trump and his allies have spent more than $378 million on broadcast, cable, radio and digital ads since the party conventions ended in late August, the ad-tracking firm AdImpact reports, much of it aimed at casting her as too liberal for the nation. Harris and her allies have spent more than $625 million, much of it aimed at introducing her on more favorable terms to voters.
James Freeman is the co-author of “The Cost: Trump, China and American Revival" and also the co-author of “Borrowed Time: Two Centuries of Booms, Busts and Bailouts at Citi."
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