When will gas prices drop in US? Trump's energy secretary makes grim forecast: ‘Might not happen until…’

Iran War Impact: With gas costs in the US still above $3 a gallon and a ceasefire already under strain, the Trump administration is bracing Americans for a long road back to cheap fuel.

American motorists should not expect relief at the pump anytime soon. Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged on Sunday that average gasoline prices - which surged following the outbreak of hostilities between the US and Iran- may not fall below the $3-per-gallon threshold until next year, and possibly not until 2027.

The admission comes at a fraught moment for the Republican Party, with midterm elections approaching and household budgets stretched by fuel costs that have climbed by more than a dollar since where they stood twelve months ago.

What Chris Wright Said About Gas Prices and the Iran War

Speaking on CNN's State of the Union programme, Wright stopped well short of offering a firm timeline for a return to sub-$3 fuel. "That could happen later this year. That might not happen until next year (2027)," he said, when asked directly when Americans should expect prices to fall below that level.

Wright, however, offered a note of cautious optimism. "But prices have likely peaked, and they'll start going down, certainly with a resolution of this conflict, you'll see prices go down," he said.

Wright also sought to reframe the benchmark itself, arguing that $3-per-gallon petrol represents genuine value in historical terms. "Under $3 a gallon is pretty tremendous in inflation-adjusted terms," he said. "We'll get back there for sure."

Wright further pointed out that, even at their recent peak, prices remain below the highs recorded during the Biden administration. The costliest point of the current crisis came earlier this month, when the national average reached $4.16 per gallon. As of Sunday, that figure had eased slightly to $4.05, according to data from AAA -- still nearly a dollar above the $3.16 average recorded a year ago.

Trump Administration Divided Over Fuel Price Timeline

Wright's remarks sit in notable tension with those of his colleagues. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking last week, predicted that prices would fall back to the $3-per-gallon range by summer.

US President Donald Trump has also indicated that elevated prices may persist through to November - a timeline that aligns more closely with Wright's assessment, although it carries stark implications for the midterms.

How the Iran War Is Driving Up Gas Prices Across America

The conflict between the US and Israel with Iran has roiled oil markets and driven up fuel costs in ways that are now registering acutely in American homes. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted this month found that 51% of adults described gasoline prices as either "difficult" or a "financial hardship" for their family finances.

The disruption extends beyond road travel. Airlines have begun warning of a potential jet fuel shortage as the war's effects ripple through supply chains. US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy addressed those concerns on Sunday, suggesting the pressure would ease as the conflict receded.

"So yes, a small disruption, hopefully for a short period of time, but in the long run it becomes cheaper for Americans to travel because of decreased jet fuel prices," Duffy said.

Iran Ceasefire Under Strain as Trump Threatens Escalation

The US and Iran reached a ten-day ceasefire agreement last week, but the fragile truce is already showing signs of fracture. Trump on Sunday accused Iran of violating the agreement through attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Meanwhile, Trump announced on social media that US officials are to arrive in Pakistan on Monday for further negotiations.

In a post that revived his earlier warnings made before the US and Iran ceasefire, Trump wrote: “We're offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran [sic].”

Wright and his colleagues are united on one point: the path to lower prices runs through resolving the US' war with Iran.