Will China derail Donald Trump's trade deal with the EU? What experts say

US President Donald Trump has expressed strong confidence that a trade deal with the European Union is imminent, reassuring that the deal will "100% happen" to avoid a looming 20% tariff set to take effect this July. However, as the US administration continues to implement sweeping tariffs, including those targeting China, experts suggest that China may attempt to intervene in the US-EU trade negotiations, potentially undermining Trump’s efforts. Here’s what experts speaking with Fox News Digital have to say about the ongoing trade dynamics between the US, EU, and China.

Trump's confident stance amid tariff tensions

President Trump’s recent remarks about the US-EU trade deal underscore his belief that the agreement will be concluded soon, with the EU eager to avoid the 20% tariffs set to be imposed on various goods starting in July. These tariffs come as part of Trump’s broader strategy to protect American industries, including steel, aluminum, and automobiles, which has reshaped global trade dynamics.

However, this aggressive trade approach has caused a rift between the US and its traditional allies in Europe, with many in the EU questioning the reliability of the US as a long-term trading partner.

China eyes opportunity in US-EU strain

As Trump ramps up his global tariff initiatives, particularly a staggering 245% tariff on imports from China, Beijing is looking to take advantage of the growing friction between the US and the EU. According to experts interviewed by Fox News, China may see an opportunity to weaken the US’s negotiating position with Europe by offering attractive trade deals to the EU.

Elaine Dezenski, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted that while European leaders may face political pressures to maintain strong relations with the US, the idea of pivoting towards China might prove tempting, despite the inherent risks. “Given the electoral politics in Europe, it may be hard for some European leaders to appear weak with Trump. Making a pivot to China—risky though it is—could be tempting,” Dezenski stated.

China’s pitch: 1.4 billion consumers vs US buying power

One of China’s primary points of leverage in negotiations is its vast domestic market. Dezenski explained that China could entice European nations by promising to increase imports of EU goods, tapping into a consumer base of “1.4 billion” people, which could be a more compelling offer than the smaller, wealthier US consumer market. While there is considerable mistrust of China within Europe due to long-standing trade imbalances and concerns over Chinese economic practices, the allure of China’s market is undeniable.

However, Dezenski also emphasized that the Trump administration's tariffs have left Europe uncertain about the US’s reliability as a trading partner, making it harder to rebuild trust in the US. “Trump’s aggressive global tariffs have angered traditional allies, and rebuilding that trust may be difficult,” she said.

Challenges: Chinese dumping and EU resistance

While China may attempt to woo Europe with promises of increased imports, it faces significant resistance due to long-standing concerns about “dumping.” Dumping refers to the practice of selling goods in foreign markets at artificially low prices, often below production costs, to gain market share. The EU has accused China of dumping products such as solar panels, electric vehicles, and consumer electronics in European markets, which has led to a string of trade disputes.

In a recent phone call with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized China’s critical role in preventing trade diversion caused by tariffs, especially in sectors already dealing with global overcapacity. Despite the potential for increased trade with China, these concerns over dumping remain a significant barrier.

China’s trade deficit with the EU

According to Dezenski, the China-EU trade imbalance is likely to remain a key obstacle for European leaders, who have been critical of China's market practices.

“China has resisted opening its markets, favoring domestic producers,” Dezenski explained. “However, China will face increasing pressure to address massive trade imbalances.”

Experts: EU-China trade can’t replace US market

Analysts argue that neither China nor the EU can afford to sideline the US market, no matter the friction.

“EU and China cannot offset the U.S. market by expanding exchange between each other. Not by a long shot,” Steve Yates, a senior research fellow at The Heritage Foundation, was quoted as saying by the news report.

“With both the EU and China, it is the enormous draw of the U.S. consumer market that provides the fuel for growth,” Yates said. “That is the powerful leverage that President Trump is wielding in these negotiations.”