Why Andhra is urging families to have more kids — falling fertility or delimitation panic

Andhra Pradesh chief minister Chandrababu Naidu's recent announcement to provide cash incentives to families for having a third and fourth child has reignited a debate. How can a state in arguably the world's most populous country encourage people to have more children?

While making this announcement during a public meeting in Srikakulam district, Naidu said, “Population growth is declining. Children should be viewed as the nation's wealth, not a burden. The government would provide ₹30,000 for families on the birth of a third child and ₹40,000 for the birth of a fourth child, as part of efforts to encourage population growth.”

Naidu's latest announcement comes after an earlier proposal in which he had suggested a ₹25,000 incentive for families having a second child.

Neighbouring state Tamil Nadu has previously made similar announcements, while Telangana may reportedly do the same in future. This has triggered a political debate, with leaders across parties sharply divided over the policy's intent and feasibility.

Falling Fertility Rate

On the one hand, leaders from Andhra's ruling Telugu Desam Party (TDP) have defended the policy as a long-term strategy to address declining fertility rates. On the other hand, Opposition voices have questioned its prudence amid concerns about unemployment, fiscal stress, and other population-related challenges in the state.

Naidu's ruling party claimed that while certain north Indian states, such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand, have a high Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of roughly 3, Andhra Pradesh's TFR has fallen sharply to 1.5.

TFR is a demographic metric defined as the average number of children a woman can have in her lifetime. A TFR less than 2 is considered indicative of a declining population.

TDP spokesperson Kommareddy Pattabhiram claimed that only a handful of north Indian states have a TFR above the national average of 2. In contrast, fewer states have a replacement level of 2.1 — considered the ‘magic number’ at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next without migration.

“More than 75% of the states in the country are suffering from low fertility ratios, which is very dangerous for the future,” Pattabhiram told news agency ANI.

Economic targets

TDP spokesperson Deepak Reddy said that Andhra Pradesh aims to achieve a Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of $2.4 trillion and raise per capita income to ₹55 lakh by 2047. He asserted that addressing population decline is crucial to achieving these ambitious goals.

Reddy further said that "Andhra Pradesh is among the first states in India" to recognise these global trends proactively — several countries, including Japan and China, have reported an ageing or decreasing population — and initiate corrective measures well in advance.

In fact, South Korea has declared its record-low birth rate a "national emergency" and announced plans for a dedicated government ministry. But developed countries are focusing on healthy, active ageing to fill the gap left by a declining workforce.

Reddy too said that a declining population trend could create serious demographic and economic challenges in the future, including a possible reduction in the state's parliamentary representation during future delimitation exercises.

Delimitation causing panic in South India

The opposition party in the state, YSRCP, claimed that the financial system and governance have completely collapsed, with debts mounting and unemployment at its peak. And that Naidu has announced this policy “to divert people's attention from his government's failures.”

Meanwhile, Congress leader Udit Raj said that the move had more to do with the state's representation in Parliament and budgetary allocations.

The delimitation exercise is expected to redraw electoral boundaries to reflect population shifts, likely reducing the number of parliamentary seats for the economically prosperous southern states. As states are allocated budgets based on their population, they fear the exercise could deepen their financial struggles and limit policy-making freedom.

Congress leader Udit Raj said, "The fear of losing seats has created panic in South India, where people worry that their representation will shrink as their population declines." Raj added that states that control population should, in fact, receive more budget support, and that their seats should not be reduced but increased.