‘Joe Biden will find it…’: ’Nostradamus’ of US Presidential polls shares his 2024 predictions
US President Joe Biden is predicted to win a second term by election expert Allan Lichtman, known as the Nostradamus of US presidential elections. Biden is currently trailing his Republican rival by 1.5 percentage points according to national polls.
US President Joe Biden is set to retain the While House for another term unless “a lot goes wrong” in November. The prediction came from Allan Lichtman — often dubbed the Nostradamus of US presidential elections — as Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump launched high octane poll campaigns. Reports quoting national polls indicate that the POTUS is currently trailing his Republican rival by about 1.5 percentage points.
“I have not made a final prediction yet but I do have a model for 13 keys to the White House which have been correct since 1984 - 10 elections in a row - and the way it works is if six or more of the 13 keys go against the White House party (incumbent) they are predicted losers and if fewer than six then they are predicted winners. Right now a lot would have to go wrong for Joe Biden to lose this election. He's at the moment down by just two keys,” he told NDTV.
The professor of history at American University based his assertion on “13 keys to the White House” — indicators that have steered him true for several decades. The ‘true or false’ questionnaire crafted by Lichtman assesses several factors including economic performance, social stability, and incumbent charisma. The predictive model includes factors such as incumbency and party mandate as well as economic stability and growth, policy shift and foreign mishaps.
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A Reuters/Ipsos poll in March showed Americans age 18-29 favoring Biden over Trump by just 3 percentage points (29% to 26%) with the rest favoring another candidate or unsure of who if anyone would get their vote. Lichtman however insisted that early polls were “momentary snapshots” that ultimately held “zero predictive value”.
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Business NewsNewsWorld‘Joe Biden will find it…’: ’Nostradamus’ of US Presidential polls shares his 2024 predictions
First Published:2 May 2024, 04:22 PM IST
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