Bangladesh Elections: 7 crucial factors that could shape first vote today since the 2024 uprising

Bangladesh Elections: Bangladesh votes today to elect a new national government. The voting amid tight security is seen as the country's most consequential election in recent history.

The election follows youth-led protests 18 months ago that overthrew the government of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina and ushered Bangladesh into an interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.

The voting, alongside a constitutional referendum on political reforms, will end the transition period and test the South Asian nation's democracy.

The main contest is between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Tarique Rahman and a newly formed 11-party alliance, officially known as the ‘Like-minded 11 Parties.’ The alliance is led by the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami and the National Citizen Party. The Awami League, of which Sheikh Hasina is the President, is currently suspended and barred from contesting elections.

Many pre-poll surveys and opinion polls give the BNP a lead over the Jamaat-e-Islami.

What are the main election issues in the nation of 175 million people, which has been governed by an unelected interim administration since Hasina’s fall in August 2024?

1- Sheikh Hasina Factor

Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's Awami League has been denied permission to contest this election. Hasina, who is in exile in New Delhi, has said that her party's absence would leave millions of supporters without a candidate and push many to boycott the election.

The BNP has made Hasina's extradition a central campaign theme. The party argues that India's continued sheltering of the ousted leader undermines Bangladesh's justice process and sovereignty.

In an interview with The Week this month, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, the BNP secretary general, said Hasina is a factor, but not an insurmountable one. “Sheikh Hasina created this crisis by dismantling democratic institutions and centralising power. In the long run, she will not remain relevant in politics,” he said.

While some Bangladeshis might stay away from polling booths, analysts do not expect a mass boycott, Reuters reported.

A recent survey of various voters found that nearly half of former Awami League voters now prefer the BNP, the frontrunner in most opinion polls, followed by roughly 30 per cent who favour Jamaat.

2 - Corruption

News agency AP spoke to voters who hoped the return to elections would restore law and order, protect civil liberties and bring accountable leadership. But there is also unease as some fear political instability, the marginalisation of women and minorities, and the rise of Islamists in a secular country, the AP report said.

A recent opinion poll by the Dhaka-based Communication Research Foundation and Bangladesh Elections and Public Opinion Studies found corruption to be voters’ top concern, news agency Reuters said. Bangladesh has long ranked among the world’s worst performers in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.

In their campaigning that ended on 10 February, both the main parties — the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami have promised to tackle graft. In fact, Jamaat’s anti-corruption image is seen to be helping fuel its resurgence, Reuters said.

3 - Economy

Bangladesh was once Asia’s fastest‑growing economy. It, however, struggled to maintain momentum after the COVID‑19 pandemic paralysed its export‑driven garment sector. The protests against the Sheikh Hasina-led government in 2024 further disrupted the sector and weighed on overall growth.

There is a broader consensus that the Yunus-led administration steadied an economy that had been in free fall, but many say it failed to restore security and protect human rights, and neglected the safety of religious minorities, news agency AP said.

Dhaka resident Rajit Hasan told AP that while the interim government made efforts to stabilise the situation, it ultimately fell short of delivering the deep reforms and accountability many had hoped for.

“The government just tried, but the political situation was so fragmented, so fragile, that it just couldn’t sort it out,” he said.

As things stand, Bangladesh's economy is currently undergoing restructuring and recovery following the political upheaval in August 2024. While it remains a significant South Asian player, it is still navigating a shift from high "headline" growth to more transparent, reform-focused stability, according to analysts who closely follow Bangladesh.

For 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a real GDP growth of 4.9%, a slight recovery from the 3.7% estimated for 2025. The nominal GDP is estimated at approximately $519 billion for 2026.

4- Jobs and Inflation

High consumer prices remain a concern, with inflation forecast at 8.7% for 2026. Food staples have seen significant price hikes, impacting household purchasing power

Inflation edged up to 8.58% in January, according to official data, and more than two‑thirds of respondents in the poll cited “prices” as their second‑biggest concern, Reuters said.

Employment remains a primary concern for the young voters who led the 2024 uprising. In Yunus's administration, the focus has been on reforming the government job quota system, which was the original trigger for the 2024 protests due to perceptions of unfairness

An estimated 40 per cent of Bangladeshis are under 30. So the next government faces intense pressure to create jobs for millions of young people after months of instability.

Both political parties have made significant ‘job pledges’ to reach out to the youth vote. The BNP, for example, has promised to create 10 million to 15 million jobs within the first 18 months if elected.

Jamaat-e-Islami focused on skill development and maintaining regional economic stability to foster job growth in its campaign.

5 – Attacks on Hindus

Many voters expect a fair election amid a strong perception in Bangladesh that previous elections under Hasina were rigged. This, along with a clampdown on opposition parties, was seen as the primary reason that eventually exploded into a student-led uprising marking the end of Hasina's 15-year-long rule.

One of the key factors in the post-Hasina era heavy on voters' minds is the rising political violence, attacks on Hindu minorities, and a collapse of law and order on the streets, AP reported.

“I want the government to prevent riots, killings, and any other trouble in the country,” 62-year-old street vendor Zainul Abedeen told the news agency.

Bangladesh is a 90 per cent Muslim-majority country. It has over 1.3 crore Hindus with more than 16 crore Muslims. With the rise and return of BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, who have a poor track record on the safety of minorities, there is a sense of fear among Hindus, as reported by the Indian Express.

The Hindu community constituted the traditional support base of Hasina’s Awami League.

Following the August 2024 upheaval, violent incidents targeting the Hindu community in Bangladesh were reported, resulting in multiple deaths and attacks on homes and businesses.

There have been about 2,700 incidents of targeted violence against Hindus in the past 18 months of the Yunus-led interim government, according to community leaders who spoke with the Indian Express.

Reports from organisations like Ain o Salish Kendra (3 deaths) and the Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council (5 deaths) indicated fatal violence.

6- Women's representation

For decades, Bangladesh was governed by women prime ministers — Khaleda Zia for two full terms and Hasina for four. The two prime ministers gave many women a sense of representation. Not any more.

Khalida Zia died days before the election. Her son, Tarique Rehman, is the frontrunner to become the prime minister. Hasina and her party are banned from participating in the election. Hasina is in exile in India.

There are fewer women candidates than before, despite the pivotal role women protesters played in the uprising that paved the way for the election.

Economics student Wasima Binte Hussain, who took part in the uprising, told AP she had hoped the political transition would open more space for women. But she has found the reality discouraging.

"Women's leadership remains scarce, and issues affecting women have yet to get the attention they deserve, she said.

7 - Rise of Islamists

Among other factors on voters' minds is the rise of Islamists in these elections. These worries have grown alongside a surge of support in Bangladesh for Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamist group that was banned under Hasina but has gained influence since her ouster.

The party's rise has alarmed many women, especially after its leaders suggested restricting women’s activities and questioned their ability to work because of their childbearing roles. The party, however, insists that it would rule moderately if it came to power.

Sayma Nowshin Suha, 22, said the prospect of Jamaat-e-Islami gaining power is deeply frightening for young women like her because of its conservative politics. She said she dreams of a Bangladesh where people are free to live their lives as they see fit, without fear or restriction.

“In Bangladesh,” she said, “conservatism is the scariest thing.”

(With agency inputs)