Bangladesh Elections: BNP vs Jamaat-e-Islami — are they friendly towards India? Explained

India will closely watch the Bangladesh national elections on February 12 in the backdrop of the ongoing economic and political turmoil in the neighbouring country. Following the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, concerns persist about whether the new regime in Bangladesh will have a pro-India foreign policy.

A few pre-poll surveys and opinion polls give the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) a lead over the Jamaat-e-Islami — the two key parties contesting the upcoming Bangladesh polls.

Both political parties have formed separate alliances for the elections. Student leaders' National Citizen Party (NCP), which was behind the 2024 uprising against Sheikh Hasina, joined hands with Jamaat-e-Islami.

Bangladesh and India are important trading partners. They share the longest border (4,096 km) and 54 rivers.

BNP vs Jamaat-e-Islami: Here, we delve into their outlook towards India

BNP's stance on India

The BNP, earlier headed by former Bangladesh Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, has had "prickly engagement" with India in the past — as the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS-NUS), Singapore, described it.

Zia ruled Bangladesh thrice — between 1991-1996, briefly in 1996, and again from 2001 to 2006.

According to the ISAS's analysis, Khaleda, unlike Hasina, framed India through a more sceptical lens.

"The BNP’s rhetoric frequently depicted Indian initiatives as hegemonic and unequal, opposing transit arrangements and highlighting unresolved disputes over water and trade," the ISAS claimed.

Moreover, during Zia's regime, Dhaka reportedly provided sanctuary, training and logistical support to insurgent groups such as the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), NSCN (IM), and others.

"These groups used Bangladeshi territory to launch attacks in India," Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis (MP-IDSA) said in its analysis.

Khaleda Zia had controversially referred to these insurgent groups in the Northeast/separatist movements as “freedom fighters," the report claimed.

BNP's foreign policy today

Years later, the BNP is likely to return to power in Bangladesh, two pre-poll surveys suggest. Zia's son, Tarique Rahman, who recently returned from self-imposed exile, has already put his hat in the ring for the prime minister post.

Ahead of the national polls, the BNP shared a document that detailed its vision for 2030.

On its foreign policy, the BNP's document stated that the political party “is firmly committed to uphold independence, sovereignty and dignity of Bangladesh.”

It said the BNP will not interfere in the internal affairs of any other country, nor will it create any security threat to any other country.

The BNP, however, warned of "strong resistance" if any other country interferes into the internal affairs of Bangladesh and poses any threat to the state security of the country.

The document firmly stated its belief that across the border, “Bangladesh have friends and no master.”

"With respect to foreign relations, topmost priority will be given to the national interest of Bangladesh. The BNP will build up special relations with Muslim Ummah and the neighbouring countries," it said.

Now, with the Bangladesh elections around the corner, India will look forward to forging and sustaining good diplomatic ties with the new regime in the neighbouring country.

Notably, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent a condolence letter following the death of Khaleda Zia this year. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had attended Zia’s funeral where he met her son, Tarique Rahman.

Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami's stance on India

Jamaat-e-Islami, the Islamist party, was once sharply at odds with India.

Ahead of the elections, Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Dr Shafiqur Rahman was quoted by Dhaka Tribune as saying on February 8, "On 12 February, the people will show a red card to the slaves of hegemony..." The Hindu saw it as an indirect message for India.

Meanwhile, Jamaat's ally National Citizen Party (NCP) — formed by student leaders- also showed an anti-India stance during the 2024 uprising against Hasina.

Its leader, Hasnat Abdullah, had reportedly warned, “If Bangladesh is destabilised, the fire of resistance will spread beyond borders. Since you are housing those who destabilise us, we will give refuge to the separatists of the seven sisters too.”

Last year, holding the ideals of radical leader Osman Hadi, another leader had said, "We are not anti-India, we are against Indian hegemony."

Jamaat's foreign policy

On February 9, Dr Shafiqur Rahman "reiterated Jamaat’s commitment to maintaining equal and respectful relations with all countries, prioritising national interest, sovereignty, and development, while engaging proactively on global challenges such as climate change," the Dhaka Tribune reported.

What's at stake for India? Experts say…

Experts said that a new Bangladesh government will likely continue to normalise ties with Pakistan without undermining relations with India.

Praveen Donthi, Senior Analyst, International Crisis Group, told Livemint, “New Delhi pursues a pragmatic approach to its strategic and foreign policy, though it may sometimes take time to reorient itself.”

He said, "Whoever comes to power now, since the Awami League is out of the reckoning, it [India] will seek to restore its ties with Dhaka."

Donthi said Dhaka, in turn, would aim to balance between Beijing and New Delhi, "with possible outreach to Islamabad as well."

"India and China will try to outdo each other in this race for influence, and Bangladesh will try to make the most out of it," he said.

Meanwhile, former Indian diplomat Dilip Sinha, who has served as New Delhi's deputy high commissioner in Bangladesh, said, "China delivers infrastructure in a way India cannot...But India provides things Bangladesh critically needs — power and yarn for the garment industry."

The February 12 poll will be the nation's first since a student-led uprising toppled former prime minister Sheikh Hasina's autocratic regime in August 2024.