China casts a shadow as NATO allies debate expanded role in Asia

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, along with other Asian leaders, aims to bolster ties with NATO during an important summit in Lithuania in the coming week.

As reported by Bloomberg, there are disagreements within the alliance about the specific nature of this collaboration as they grapple with how to navigate their relationship with China.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno confirmed that Kishida intends to emphasize the importance of stronger relations between Japan and NATO, despite objections from Beijing regarding the alliance's activities in the region. Alongside Kishida, leaders from South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand will also be present at the summit in Vilnius.

According to Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, the visit by Asian leaders to NATO will underscore the interconnectedness of security in the Indo-Pacific and Europe. Matsuno stated that the visit will confirm NATO's increased involvement in the region, highlighting the stronger engagement of the alliance.

NATO allies are currently engaged in discussions about a potential joint statement with the four Indo-Pacific countries. This statement aims to deepen cooperation and emphasize the interdependence of security in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region, as noted by a senior European diplomat.

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However, within the alliance, there are differences in conceptual understanding regarding whether NATO's focus should remain limited to the area covered by the alliance's supreme commander, which spans from northern Europe to southern Europe and from the Atlantic coastline to eastern Turkey. Some members advocate for NATO to adopt a broader perspective on security matters that impact the alliance as a whole, Bloomberg reported mentioning an anonymous diplomat.

Following its recognition of Beijing as a challenge to the alliance, the 31-nation NATO bloc has aimed to strengthen ties with the United States' closest allies in the region.

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However, plans to establish NATO's first office in Asia faced opposition from French President Emmanuel Macron in May, who warned against expanding NATO's scope, deeming it a significant mistake.

The ongoing support of Chinese President Xi Jinping for Vladimir Putin, even after 16 months since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has influenced European strategies concerning Beijing.

NATO has condemned the partnership between China and Russia, viewing it as a violation of the rules-based international order, and has identified China as posing a "systemic challenge" to the alliance.

“What happens in Asia matters for Europe and what happens in Europe matters for Asia,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who recently visited Japan and Korea, said in June.

As the United States aims to establish multilateral mechanisms in the Indo-Pacific region, Beijing argues that such efforts are intended to contain its own growth. Within NATO, the alliance's most influential member has emphasized the significance of China's rise.

These endeavours seem to have gained traction. Earlier this year, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida visited Europe to enhance military ties, and subsequently, the Japanese Air Force participated in NATO's largest deployment exercise to date. Moreover, South Korea's defence exports, supported by the United States, witnessed a significant increase last year, driven by growing demand in regions like Eastern Europe.

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Europe is gradually recognizing the need to assume a more significant role in the Indo-Pacific region, although the exact details and strategies are still under discussion. “European members of NATO would have to take on more responsibility than is the case today,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in a recent interview with German broadcaster ZDF. “I believe everyone is conscious of this.”

According to US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, the upcoming NATO summit will feature dedicated sessions focused on strengthening partnerships with four countries in the Indo-Pacific region. During his visit to Tokyo, Sullivan also mentioned that NATO and Japan are expected to unveil the key aspects of a new collaboration, which may involve aligning defense equipment.

“What we have to be careful about is that Japan’s strength as a country of course has limits,” said Akihisa Nagashima, a former vice-defense minister and now current member of the lower house security committee. “If Japan has to take part in all NATO operations, its own vicinity will be neglected.”

After a turbulent year marked by incidents like an alleged spy balloon flying over the US, the strained relationship between Washington and Beijing is beginning to show indications of improvement. Despite the recent notable visits of senior US officials to Beijing, Asian leaders remain cautious and express concerns about the potential for an incident that could escalate into a conflict.

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China has made allegations that the United States is seeking to establish an alliance resembling NATO in the Asian region, despite the US denying such claims.

“The attitude of the majority of countries in the region is very clear. They oppose the emergence of military blocs,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin told reporters in June. “They don’t welcome NATO’s outreach in Asia.”

Southeast Asian nations have generally pursued a non-aligned stance, avoiding taking sides between the United States and China, as well as Russia, which has longstanding diplomatic ties in the region. Additionally, some countries hold differing perspectives on NATO's approach to the situation in Ukraine.

In recent developments, Indonesia's Defense Minister, Prabowo Subianto, put forth a peace proposal that shares resemblances with a Chinese plan that has faced significant rejection in Europe. Meanwhile, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has expressed skepticism about the possibility of Ukraine regaining all the territory currently occupied by Russia, deeming it "impossible."

Bilahari Kausikan, Singapore's former permanent secretary for foreign affairs, suggests that NATO's involvement in Asia is expected to be constrained to specific countries, particularly those with strong alliances with the United States, as concerns regarding China continue to escalate.

“The significance is much more political than military or strategic,” he said of NATO’s deepening ties in the region. “These are significant, but we should not exaggerate their significance.”