Crypto betting market fails to predict new Pope: Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost elected despite 1.2% odds

It turns out the crypto betting market that was credited by many for its prescience in the last US presidential election isn’t so great at picking popes.

Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, who was elected Thursday as the first US-born Roman Catholic pontiff, wasn’t among the favorites on prediction markets platform Polymarket, whose traders priced in only a 1.2% probability of his being selected for the church’s top role. 

Prevost, who last served as prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops at the Vatican, chose the name of Leo XIV.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State, was the frontrunner with an implied probability of 28%, while Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines was seen as the second most likely at 21% as of Wednesday on Polymarket.

Prevost, 69, was born in Chicago but spent much of his career in Peru before moving to Rome under the late Pope Francis’ guidance.

Polymarket traders transact in cryptocurrency for wagers placed on the site, allowing users to buy “yes” or “no” shares on the outcomes of closely watched events. 

Frenzied betting on the outcome of last year’s US election led to the New York-based platform recording $2.3 billion and $2.6 billion in trading volume in October and November respectively, blockchain data compiled by Dune Analytics user rchen8 show.

The site came under scrutiny after a trader in France made massive bets on Donald Trump to win the US presidential election, helping to push him to the front-runner on the predictions market.