Do recent clashes in the Strait of Hormuz put Iran–US negotiations at risk? What we know so far

Pakistan on Monday moved forward with preparations for a fresh round of talks between the United States and Iran, just days before a fragile ceasefire is set to expire. However, renewed tensions and incidents in the Strait of Hormuz have cast uncertainty over whether the meeting will actually take place, as reported by AP.

Over the weekend, the US attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel that it said had tried to evade its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran’s joint military command vowed to respond, and its Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Aragchi told his Pakistani counterpart that American threats to Iranian ships and ports were “clear signs” of Washington’s disingenuousness ahead of the planned talks, Iran state media reported.

US-Iran negotiations at risk?

With tensions flaring and the ceasefire due to expire midweek, Pakistan has intensified diplomatic contacts with both Washington and Tehran over the past 24 hours, with the goal of resuming talks on Tuesday as planned, according to two Pakistani officials involved in the preparations. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the press, as reported by AP.

US President Donald Trump said American negotiators would head to the Pakistani capital on Monday, but it was not immediately clear whether those plans would now change. Iran has not officially commented on possible talks, but Iranian state media, citing anonymous sources, issued brief reports suggesting the talks would not take place, AP reported.

Iran sharply restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf to open waters, soon after the United States and Israel launched attacks on it on 28 February, triggering the conflict.

Now, the US has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports.

Around one-fifth of global oil trade typically passes through this narrow waterway, along with essential supplies such as fertilisers, natural gas and humanitarian aid destined for countries in urgent need, including Afghanistan and Sudan.

Iran says more than 3,000 have been killed so far

Since the war began, at least 3,375 people have been killed in Iran, according to figures released Monday in state media by Abbas Masjedi. He did not provide a breakdown between civilians and security personnel, but said that 2,875 of the dead were men and 496 were women. Among the victims, 383 were children aged 18 or younger, he said, AP reported.

More than 2,290 people have also been killed in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states. Fifteen Israeli soldiers in Lebanon and 13 US service members throughout the region have been killed, AP reported.

Oil prices on the rise again after renewed conflict in Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz has pushed global oil prices sharply higher, contributing to one of the most severe energy crises in decades. Oil prices saw some recovery after Iran announced the reopening of the strait, following the start of a 10-day truce between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon that took effect on Friday, AP reported.

However, Trump said the US blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal with the US. On Sunday, the US military seized an Iranian cargo ship, the first interception since the blockade began last week.

Iran’s joint military command called the armed boarding an act of piracy and a ceasefire violation, the state broadcaster said, and vowed to enforce again restrictions imposed early in the war. Already on Saturday, Iran fired at ships trying to transit.

Oil prices were up again in early trading on Monday, with Brent crude, the international standard, at about $95 a barrel — up more than 30% from the day the war started.

Iran early Monday warned it could keep up the global economic pain as ships remained unable to transit the strait, with hundreds of vessels waiting at each end for clearance.

Security of the strait is not free, and “the choice is clear: either a free oil market for all or the risk of significant costs for everyone,” Mohammad Reza Aref, Vice President of Iran, said in a social media post calling for a lasting end to military and economic pressure on Tehran.

(With inputs from agencies)