Don’t underestimate Mike Pence

In the Age of Trump, sober analysis becomes difficult because every claim becomes a superlative. Depending on which side you land—Trump lover or Trump hater—he’s either the best president ever or the worst in American history, and everything he’s done, whether for good or ill, is without precedent.One claim may live up to the hyperbole: The casting of this Wednesday’s prime-time face-off between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris as the most consequential vice-presidential debate since they began in 1976, when Republican Bob Dole squared off against Democrat Walter Mondale.Only a few days ago, when Wednesday night’s debate was still considered something of a sideshow to the Trump-Biden brawls, no one would have said this. But it all changed Friday, when President Trump tested positive for the coronavirus and was taken to Walter Reed Medical Center for care. Now even the remaining two Trump-Biden debates are in limbo.The president’s virus is a bracing reminder of mortality in an election featuring two septuagenarian candidates. Mr. Trump was 70 when he took the oath of office in January 2017, making him the oldest president sworn in for the first time. Now he has a virus that has taken the lives of more than 200,000 Americans, with those in his age and weight group more vulnerable than the rest of the population.Ditto for Joe Biden, who turns 78 in November. Though it is impolitic to say so, Mr. Biden has exhibited clear signs of mental decline. As a result, viewers watching how Sen. Harris handles herself Wednesday night will do so with a heightened awareness that they may be getting a preview of their next president.The attention is a largely good thing. Usually vice-presidential candidates are most visible on the campaign trail, often serving as attack dogs for the candidates at the top of their tickets. On Wednesday night Americans will be tuning in to get a fuller appreciation for who Mr. Pence and Ms. Harris are themselves.Our opinion-shaping class appears to expect that Ms. Harris, a former prosecutor, will wipe the floor with the mild-mannered vice president. Don’t bet on it. Yes, in the first Democratic primary debate Ms. Harris put Mr. Biden on the ropes. But she never matched that dominating performance in subsequent debates, and she had a hard time answering questions when Mr. Biden started firing back. After an explosive start, she flamed out and withdrew from the race before a single vote had been cast.Unlike Ms. Harris, Mr. Pence’s advantages are all the understated ones. And unlike Mr. Trump, the words most often used to describe the vice president are “calm” and “measured.” Those who have watched him know his aw-shucks Midwestern demeanor serves him well in debates.This is how Mr. Pence prevailed the last time he was on the debate stage. In 2016 Hillary Clinton’s veep pick, Sen. Tim Kaine, took more or less the same approach Mr. Trump took last week, badgering and interrupting Mr. Pence to try to make him answer for Mr. Trump’s more provocative comments. It didn’t work. Even the New York Times conceded in a headline that “Commentators Give Edge to Mike Pence.”What one observer called Mr. Kaine’s “over-caffeinated” style, the Times article suggested, had backfired against Mr. Pence’s Hoosier imperturbability: “Commentators and critics said Mr. Pence successfully played defense for 90 minutes, dodging, denying and ultimately appearing more stately as he handled an unenviable challenge with remarkable steadiness.”Cut to today. Normally a president forced to suspend his campaigning would suffer for it. But these aren’t normal times. While Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden have now switched places—the president is confined while the former vice president is out on the campaign trail—and with all the bad news that has hit the Trump ticket recently, a soothing dose of Mr. Pence might be just what the doctor ordered.Thus far the predebate news has focused on the logistics: Will Mr. Pence and Ms. Harris be in the same room? How many feet apart will they stand? Meanwhile, a just-released YouGov poll shows that “if the election were between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris,” registered voters say they would prefer Ms. Harris by a single point, 46% to 45%.Only once has a vice-presidential debate overshadowed the presidential contests, in 2008 when Gov. Sarah Palin surprised many by more than holding her own against a far more seasoned Mr. Biden. Reuters reported at the time that the Palin-Biden showdown ranked as “the most watched vice presidential debate ever.”This Wednesday night’s showdown may not match the Nielsen ratings of that one. But every American who tunes in will do so with this thought: Is this the candidate I will really be choosing when I vote for president on Nov. 3?Write to mcgurn@wsj.com.

Don’t underestimate Mike Pence

Wait for it…

Wait for it…

Congratulations!

Subscribe to continue