Explained: Anura Dissanayake's NPP wins snap elections in Sri Lanka – Is this a turning point for the island nation?

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake's leftist coalition has won a landslide victory in the country's snap parliamentary polls.

Dissanayake-led National People's Power (NPP) coalition won at least 137 seats in the 225-member parliament after securing around 62 per cent of the vote in ballots counted so far, according to election commission data. The opposition leader, Sajith Premadasa-led alliance Samagi Jana Balawegaya, was well behind with only 18 per cent votes and just 35 seats, according to reports by various news agencies.

“Sri Lankans handed Anura Kumara Dissanayake a thumping win in a snap general election, giving its new leftist president greater legislative power to pursue policies to alleviate poverty and fight graft as the country recovers from a financial meltdown,” a report by Reuters said.

The main constituent of the NPP is the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), with Dissanayake as its leader.

Voters directly elect 196 members to parliament from 22 constituencies under a proportional representation system. According to a report in Reuters, the remaining 29 seats will be allocated according to the island-wide proportional vote obtained by each party.

Dissanayake's victory in September?

Dissanayake, a left-leaning leader, swept the Sri Lankan presidential elections held in September this year, promising to combat graft and recover stolen assets.

The fifty-year-old defeated prominent names including incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who finished third with just 17 per cent of the votes and Namal Rajapaksa, son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa,who managed less that 3 per cent of votes in the Saturday's election.

Before his victory in the presidential polls, the NPP had just three of parliament’s 225 seats. He dissolved it and sought a fresh mandate to support his agenda.

As many as 1.7 crore Sri Lankans were eligible to elect lawmakers for a five-year term. A record 690 political parties and independent groups were contesting across 22 electoral districts, according to reports.

What does Victory Mean for Dissanayake?

NPP's victory in Friday's results would mean greater legislative power to President Dissanayake, allowing him to pursue his policies, which are primarily targeted at alleviating poverty and fighting corruption. The country is trying hard to recover from a financial meltdown.

Dissanayake's victory – first in Presidential polls and now in snap elections – assumes significance in the politics of Sri Lanka – the nation grappling in the aftermath of the mass protests that ousted Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022. The results show that Sri Lankans have voted out the incumbent, reflecting the anger in the country entrusting home in Dissanayake.

Under these circumstances, steering the country towards economic recovery while addressing the pressing issues of inflation remains among the key challenges ahead for Dissanayake.

Turning point for Sri Lanka?

The victory of the Dissanayake-led leftist coalition marks a critical break from the political families that have long dominated the country. For nearly two decades, the Rajapaksa family has been at the helm of Sri Lankan governance, beginning with Mahinda Rajapaksa’s rise to power in 2005.

Dissanayake, the 55-year-old son of a labourer, told French news agency AFP that he expected “a strong majority” in parliament to press ahead with his platform after casting his ballot in Thursday's poll.

“We believe that this is a crucial election that will mark a turning point in Sri Lanka,” he said. “At this election, the NPP expects a mandate for a very strong majority in parliament.”

Dissanayake is known for his pro-China leanings. Some of his public statements and decisions didn't seem to favour India's interests.

The President-elect did not support the implementation of the 13th amendment of the Sri Lankan Constitution, which devolves powers to the country’s Tamil minority, something that has been a long-standing demand of India.

Pro-China stand?

Dissanayake had been an MP for nearly 25 years and was briefly an agriculture minister. Dissanayake’s party –Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna(JVP), which leads the NPP alliance, is known for its anti-India and pro-China leaning.

The JVP opposed the Indo-Lanka accord of 1987. The accord was signed by the then president of Sri Lanka, JR Jayewardene, and Prime Minister late Rajiv Gandhi. Dissanayake also opposed any investigation into the alleged war crimes committed during the civil war between the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and Sri Lankan forces.

However, Dissanayake expressed a desire to engage with India and maintain cordial relations in the run-up to the Presidential polls in September. This signalled a shift in his stance and indicated his wish to work with global players, including India.

Ties with India?

Dissanayake said in interviews that he would ensure Sri Lanka's sea, land, and airspace are not used in ways threatening India and regional stability. He also said he carefully considered the impact of economic measures while recognising India's support for development efforts in Sri Lanka.

India provided Sri Lanka with economic and humanitarian assistance of over US$ 4.5 billion and supported Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring efforts during the Island nation's economic crisis of 2022.

In October this year during his visit to Sri Lanka, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met Dissanayake to discuss strengthening cooperation and deepening ties between India and Sri Lanka. Jaishankar was the first foreign dignitary to visit Sri Lanka since the NPP government led by Dissanayake came to power on September 23.

“Discussions focused on boosting cooperation in tourism, energy, and investment. Dr Jaishankar reaffirmed India’s support for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. The importance of continued collaboration on fisheries, security, and national unity was also discussed,” Dissanayake wrote on X after meeting Jaishankar.