Gold nears record high on US rate-cut optimism, geopolitical risks

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Gold demand in China, India set to improve in coming months

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Odds of 25 bp rate US rate cut in Sept at 69.5% - CME FedWatch

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Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel

By Anushree Ashish Mukherjee

Aug 26 - Gold prices firmed on Monday, nearing its recent record high, amid solid bets of a September interest-rate cut following dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and safe-haven demand due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,518.47 per ounce at 01:45 p.m. ET , just shy of the record high of $2,531.60 hit last week. U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% higher at $2,555.20.

The dovish signals from Powell's speech on Friday and safe-haven interest and geopolitical risks in the Middle East are precipitating the bid in gold this morning, said Peter A. Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals.

Hezbollah had launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel early on Sunday.

"I've got a short term kind of Fibonacci objective at $2,539.77 and then my secondary is at $2,597.15," Grant added. Powell on Friday endorsed an imminent start to rate cuts, saying further cooling in the job market would be unwelcome. Traders have fully priced in a cut for next month, with a 69.5% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction and a 30.5% chance of a 50 bp cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Bullion, traditionally seen as a hedge against geopolitical risks, tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment.

"There might be some indication that China is going to come back in, but even if they don't, demand from central banks has been pretty robust regardless of price this year and that's going to continue," Grant said.

Gold demand in top consumers India and China is expected to improve in the next few months, industry officials said.

Spot silver rose 0.6% to $29.98, hitting a more than a month high.

"Industrial demand for silver looks relatively strong going into 2025, particularly as demand from solar photovoltaics looks to retain a good pace of growth," analysts at Heraeus wrote in a note.

Platinum gained 0.1% to $963.80, while palladium held steady at $963.00.

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