How is China setting grounds for more prominent role in Russia-Ukraine war?

As the Russia-Ukraine war enters the second year, it seems China is trying to take more prominent role into the conflict. Though Beijing affirms to be ‘neutral’ in the matter, there are claims that Beijing mulling to sell weapons to Russia. Moreover, President Xi's upcoming meeting with Moscow allies has further thrown more fuel to the fire. Though China's agenda is still not clear, here are a few things that hints upon China's growing interest in the conflict.  

Is China arming Russia? 

China has presented itself as a neutral party in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict but has maintained close ties with Russia all through. The US has claimed that China may provide lethal support to Russia, but Beijing denies these allegations and accuses the US of escalating the conflict through arms shipments to Ukraine. 

The United States is yet to provide concrete evidence that China is mulling sending arms to Russia, but experts have told AFP there is some credence to the claims — and that Beijing entering the conflict could be a “game changer”.

China has sold non-lethal drones and equipment to both Russia and Ukraine, which has forced Moscow to turn to Iran for armaments.

Why Ukraine allies are skeptical about position paper? 

Despite facing immense pressure from the West to condemn Russia's war in Ukraine, China has refused to take sides and positioned itself as a mediator. Recently, Beijing released a 12-point position paper to bring peace, which included respecting all countries’ territorial sovereignty.

The paper was praised by the United Nations and Russia but met with scepticism from Ukraine's allies, who questioned China's credibility due to its lack of condemnation for Russia's illegal invasion.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg noted Beijing “doesn’t have much credibility because they have not been able to condemn the illegal invasion of Ukraine”.

Why Zelenskyy wants to meet Xi?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has welcomed China's position and said he hopes to meet with Chinese President Xi to discuss resolving the crisis in Ukraine and to urge China to use its leverage on Russia. However, China has not shown any signs of intending to do so, instead considering a visit to Moscow and echoing Russian propaganda blaming the US and NATO for the war.

Why President Xi meeting Moscow ally is crucial? 

Chinese President Xi Jinping is meeting Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a reliable ally of Putin. The meeting could provide China with insights into the developing situation in Ukraine and potentially influence their strategy on the issue. 

Economic ties between China and Belarus had been growing before the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted supply chains. The visit is likely aimed at restoring bilateral ties to their pre-2020 trajectory after formally declaring each other as "comprehensive partners" last September.