India must focus on rapid economic growth as defence policy: Gautam Bambawale

The ongoing tensions along India-China border will cause the relationship between the two countries to worsen over time, former ambassador to China Gautam Bambawale said in a wide-ranging interview to Mint. As tensions between China and the West rise, the spectacular differences in the value systems of New Delhi and Beijing will only aggravate tensions. Speaking of the future, Ambassador Bambawale said China wishes to be seen as the pre-eminent superpower in Asia and India will need to bridge the gap by focusing on rapid economic growth. Edited excerpts:

India and China recently announced a border disengagement at PP-15. However, tensions remain in other border areas like Depsang. What, in your view, is the significance of the move? What does it signal about Chinese intentions?

The real move China made was in summer 2020 when it moved large numbers of troops to the border with India in Eastern Ladakh. This was a clear violation of the many agreements between us on maintenance of peace and tranquility on the border and was an attempt to change the status quo on the ground. The Indian defence forces reacted magnificently. Since then there have been long drawn talks first to disengage including the recent one at PP 15. However, there are still other areas where such disengagement has not yet taken place. The talks have also aimed at de-escalation but with no success. Large numbers of troops continue to be located close to the LAC even during the winter months. Hence, I do not read anything of great significance in the recent disengagement at PP 15. However, we must pay attention to the significance of China’s 2020 moves in Eastern Ladakh. What does that imply? The answer is simple – it implies that China wants to be acknowledged as the super power in Asia. She wants others to accept her superiority in her own backyard. Why does China crave such recognition? As the competition between China and the U.S. expands, it is essential for China to show and be seen as the arbiter of destinies in her backyard which is Asia. Only thereafter, can she challenge the United States in other geographies.

Some speculate that the disengagement was a play to secure a meeting with PM Modi at the SCO. Do you agree with this view? What do you make of the fact that the two leaders did not hold a bilateral meeting?

This speculation reveals a very shallow understanding of the forces at work. At the very least it displays the underlying assumption that Xi Jinping was keen or even desperate to have a bilateral meeting with PM Modi. This is not the case at all. Such an assumption is way off the mark. The fact that the two leaders did not meet at Samarkand on the sidelines of the SCO Heads meeting shows that the there is a yawning gap between India and China on Eastern Ladakh and how the relationship should proceed from here onward. India insists that there can be no business as usual between the two Governments and countries unless peace is restored on the border. China’s position is that border affairs and the rest of the relationship have been kept in two different verticals and hence while the border can be discussed trade, commerce, science and technology exchanges should continue normally. This fundamental divergence of views ensured that no meeting took place.

President Xi Jingping is very likely to be given a third term as General Secretary of the CCP. How will India-China relations fare with another five years, if not more, of Xi at the helm?

Since 2020, the India – China relationship has deteriorated considerably due to China’s military moves in Eastern Ladakh. They continue to deteriorate even today. As this situation continues over time, the relationship will get worse. If China wants to arrest this decline, she has to restore status quo ante in Ladakh. Unfortunately, Beijing is showing no signs of doing so. What should India be doing? India should not compromise on her position on the situation in Eastern Ladakh. She should focus inward on building up her comprehensive national power. This implies focus on economic growth. On high paced economic development even as the world is in danger of a recession. It is urgent for India to reduce the asymmetry with China.

A former Indian foreign secretary stated that India-China relations can move into any of four states: armed confrontation; armed coexistence; coexistence with cooperation and rivalry; and partnership. Do you agree with this framing? If so, which do you believe is most likely?

It is not a question of agreeing or disagreeing with this construct. It is more a question of estimating and assessing where India – China relations are headed utilizing this construct. There are several factors which we have to bring in to this argument. The most important is the fact that the broadest trend in geopolitics today is the rising competition between the United States on the one hand and China on the other. This will continue to be a hallmark of international politics over the next 3-4 decades. In such a competition, what will be important for India and China as well as the bilateral relationship, is each nation’s fundamental values. Those values will dictate and determine each country’s national interests. Here, India and China diverge spectacularly. We believe in open, transparent, democratic frameworks to bring together diversity across the nation and globe. China is authoritarian in its approach. Hence, India and China appear to me to be headed in opposite directions.

Given widespread distrust among the Indian public with respect to China, is any form of rapprochement possible?

The Indian public’s distrust of China is logical because it is based on our experience of China’s actions and activities over the past 75 years. The Indian public reaction to China is correct and understandable. However, since China is a neighbouring country with which we share a long, contested and undefined border we shall have to factor that in to our decision making as we move ahead in nation building and growth. We need to be adequately armed to defend ourselves and hence will need to spend larger proportions of our GDP on arming ourselves. We shall also have to make more of our weapons systems within India itself. Simultaneously, we must grow our economy at 7 – 8 per cent per annum so as to raise India’s comprehensive national power. That will be the best way to defend India as well as to grow India.

India now has some key economic dependencies on China particularly in sectors like renewables and pharmaceuticals. Despite geopolitical competition, trade has continued to increase. If competition flares up, how real is the threat of economic coercion? In your estimation, how successful have India’s economic security efforts been thus far?

China has already begun to reduce its few imports out of India. To give an example, there are some auto components which Chinese firms used to import from India. Over the past two years they have restructured their supply chains and reduced offtake from us. Luckily for our companies, demand for auto components from the U.S. and Germany have increased exponentially as firms in those countries also adjust their supply chains. India will soon be manufacturing more Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) within the country as Government supports such activity. Our imports of API from China will decline slowly over the next few years. These are the forces at play as geo-economics adjusts to geo-politics. We have to be aware of these trends and play to our strengths. Yet another example. The recent announcement by the Taiwanes firm Foxconn that it will manufacture semiconductors in Gujarat alongwith Vedanta is not accidental. It is a result of these changes I have described. Taiwanese manufacturers too want to expand production to countries beyond China. India must continue down this path and work at making it easier for investors to Make in India.

Which core capabilities does New Delhi need to build up if the relationship remains competitive? Perhaps three top priorities?

The answer is simple, straight forward and staring us in the face. The top 3 priorities of India are – rapid economic growth; rapid economic growth; rapid economic growth. The best foreign and defence policy for India is 8% economic growth over the next 20 to 25 years. This will reduce the asymmetry in power between India and other countries including China. That is the way to go.