Why Trump may have opposed killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei | 4 points

President Donald Trump said this week that the US knows where Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is, but won't kill him "at least not for now." His statement came as Israel launched a barrage of attacks on Iran, hinting at the possibility of a "dictatorship collapse" or a regime change in the Islamic nation.

In a post on TRUTH social media, Trump wrote, “We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Last week, several reports suggested that Trump had vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Khamenei. Three US officials told CBS News that Trump opposed a recent Israeli plan to kill Iran's Supreme Leader. Trump also delayed a decision on possibly bombing Iran’s nuclear sites.

But why doesn't Trump want Iranian Supreme leader's killing or a "regime change" in Iran?

1. 'Iran becoming like Libya'

President Trump’s wariness over bombing Iran could be due to his concerns about creating “another Libya” if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is toppled, administration insiders told the New York Post. One source close to the administration said he had also mentioned Afghanistan and Iraq.

Trump “doesn’t want it [Iran] to turn into Libya,” said one insider familiar with the US administration’s deliberations on potentially joining Israel’s airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear program.

According to the report, Trump had in recent days specifically mentioned Libya’s decade-long plunge into anarchy in 2011 — after the US joined a NATO bombing campaign to oust dictator Muammar Gaddafi — three sources close to the administration said.

“Libya was a much more extended kind of bombing commitment, and it ended up being regime change,” the fifth source noted.

The source who heard the president directly mention the comparison said there are two reasons Trump talks about Libya: “the first is the chaos after what we did to Gaddafi. The second is the Libya intervention made it more difficult to negotiate deals with countries like North Korea and Iran.”

2. 'Somebody worse than Khamenei could come'

One source reportedly said the president seems "most inclined to order limited airstrikes to finish off Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz..."

“If the regime falls [in Iran], then it’s not on Trump, because that’s not the goal of his very limited strike," the source told The Post. The source mentioned concern that “we get somebody worse than Khamenei.”

3. 'Chance of negotiations'

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Thursday afternoon that Trump was biding his time before deciding whether to join Israel’s strikes “based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future.”

4. Internal strife

The Telegraph reported that Khamenei’s death could lead to a vacuum at the heart of government that might trigger internal strife, creating opportunities for Iran’s myriad ethnic minority groups to rise up. This could "potentially igniting local conflicts that could spiral into a broader civil war," the report added.

Fearing such an outcome, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could also attempt to seize power and turn Iran into a theocratic military dictatorship. Any such outcome would risk chaos on global oil markets, one reason why traders are so anxious about the supreme leader’s fate, the report added.