Iran may target US assets in Europe if Trump escalates war: What are the potential targets? Report reveals...

Iran has considered targeting US military assets in Europe if US President Donald Trump escalates the war, according to people close to the Iranian regime, as Tehran weighs options to widen the conflict, the Financial Times reported.

Two regime insiders told the FT that Iranian forces have assessed potential strikes on US assets in southeastern European countries, including Bulgaria, which last month approved the use of its Bezmer air base by US refuelling aircraft.

Cyprus is also among the potential targets, one insider said, noting that a British air base there was hit by a drone in March.

The insiders also mentioned Iranian forces had separately explored targeting subsea fibre-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz if tensions escalate.

The threats highlight the increasingly defiant mood in Tehran, where many within the regime reportedly view a resumption of the war as a question of when, rather than if.

Talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz have stalled, while Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei last week promoted hardliners to senior security and military positions. Trump said on Tuesday there were “no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled” with Tehran.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other Iranian military commanders have warned that, in a renewed full-scale conflict, Iran could expand its previous targeting strategy beyond US military facilities, energy installations and other infrastructure in the Middle East to targets farther afield.

The Guards last month also issued a warning to the UK over the US use of British military bases, saying that “any base that is used to launch an attack on Iranian territory will be considered a legitimate target”.

‘Real, but limited’ threat

Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, described the threat from Iranian missiles to targets in Europe and elsewhere as “real, but limited”.

Iran could use medium-range ballistic missiles, including its Shahab series, against US assets in southern and southeastern Europe, although Kaushal said the missiles would face difficulties causing significant damage at longer distances.

According to the insiders, Iran's response would depend on Washington's actions. One said the regime was preparing a plan to widen the conflict if Trump follows through on his earlier threats to attack Iranian infrastructure.

The US president had said last month that Washington would destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant every time the Islamic republic targeted a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

The second insider said Iran would place “no limits” on its response if the US launched an attack. “Should the US go too far, Iran will defend itself at any price, go beyond the region and hit Europe too,” the person said.

Iran has shown that it is capable of targeting locations far from its territory. In the weeks after the US and Israel began the war in February, Washington accused Tehran of launching several missiles towards Diego Garcia, a joint US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean located around 4,000km away. None of the missiles reached their intended target.

Turkey said in March that Nato air defences had intercepted several ballistic missiles launched from Iran. The same month, a UK air base in Akrotiri, Cyprus, was hit by a drone. Western officials at the time suspected the drone was Iranian but had been launched by regional proxy forces rather than directly by Tehran.

The insiders said an Iranian strike on a US base in Jordan last month, which killed three American service members, was the most accurate long-range attack carried out by Iran and demonstrated its ability to hit targets at greater distances.

“This was also a message to Europe: it can receive missiles, so it should know where it should stand in this war,” the first insider said. “A very big mistake, such as hitting our infrastructure, could make the war go beyond the region and reach Europe.”

Kaushal of RUSI said Iran could also deploy more powerful missiles, but these would need to carry lighter warheads to achieve the range required, limiting the potential damage. He suggested that “it would be more fruitful for them to work through proxies”, including militant groups such as Shia militias in Iraq, Hizbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

US-Iran MoU

A memorandum of understanding reached between the US and Iran in June collapsed last month after Tehran attacked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides accusing each other of breaching the interim agreement. The development triggered reciprocal strikes and the restoration of a US blockade on Iranian ports. Weeks of diplomatic efforts have failed to produce a breakthrough on reopening the waterway or restarting talks on a broader agreement to end the war.