Iran unfazed by US naval blockade? CIA says Tehran can withstand barrier for months amid Gulf clashes
U.S.-Iran conflict escalates as both sides exchange fire in the Gulf. A CIA report suggests Iran can endure a blockade for months, limiting U.S. leverage.
Efforts to end the conflict between the U.S. and Iran appeared to lose momentum on Friday as both sides exchanged fire in the Gulf, while a U.S. intelligence assessment reportedly concluded that Tehran could endure a naval blockade for several months, as reported by Reuters.
A CIA assessment indicated that Iran would not suffer severe economic pressure from a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports for about another four months, as reported by Reuters, citing a US official familiar with the matter, suggesting that US leverage over Tehran remains limited as the two sides seek to end a conflict that has been unpopular with US voters.
The Washington Post first reported the assessment.
Quick answers to key questions
A CIA assessment indicated that Iran could endure a U.S. blockade of its ports for approximately four more months without suffering severe economic pressure. However, a senior intelligence official disputed these claims, stating the blockade is inflicting significant damage.
Iran has implemented a new system requiring commercial ships to provide detailed information through a 40-question declaration before transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Failure to comply may result in missile attacks, drone attacks, or seizure of the vessel.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that it is unacceptable for Iran to have a government agency vetting and taxing ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. He questioned whether the world would accept Iran controlling an international waterway.
The US military disabled two Iranian-flagged oil tankers attempting to enter an Iranian port in violation of the US blockade. A US Navy fighter jet fired precision munitions into their smokestacks, preventing them from proceeding.
While the US awaits a response to its proposal to end the war, both sides have exchanged fire in the Gulf. Iran accuses the US of breaching the ceasefire, while the US military has taken action against Iranian vessels violating the blockade.
A senior intelligence official called the “claims” about the CIA analysis “false,” saying the blockade “is inflicting real, compounding damage - severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse.”
The past few days have witnessed the most intense clashes in and around the Strait of Hormuz since a ceasefire took effect a month ago, with the United Arab Emirates once again coming under attack on Friday.
At the same time, Washington is awaiting Tehran’s response to a U.S. proposal aimed at formally ending the war before moving on to negotiations over more contentious matters, including Iran’s nuclear programme.
“We should know something today,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Rome earlier in the day. “We're expecting a response from them.”
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said Tehran was still weighing its response, and none was reported by mid-afternoon in Washington, just before midnight in Tehran, Reuters reported.
Sporadic clashes in Strait of Hormuz
Meanwhile, intermittent clashes between Iranian forces and U.S. naval vessels were reported in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency. Later, Tasnim News Agency quoted an Iranian military source as saying that the situation had eased, although it warned that further confrontations could still occur.
The U.S. military said it had targeted two Iran-linked vessels attempting to reach an Iranian port, with an American fighter jet striking their smokestacks and forcing the ships to turn back.
Iran has largely restricted non-Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict erupted following joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes across Iran on February 28. Last month, the United States also imposed a blockade on Iranian vessels.
Amid the escalating tensions, oil prices moved higher, with Brent crude futures trading above $101 per barrel, although prices remained more than 6% lower for the week
Trump said on Thursday the ceasefire was still holding despite the flare-ups in the strait, which before the war handled one-fifth of the world's oil supply.
The confrontation extended beyond the waterway. The United Arab Emirates said its air defenses engaged with two ballistic missiles and three drones from Iran on Friday, with three people sustaining moderate injuries.
During the war, Iran has repeatedly targeted the UAE and other Gulf states that host U.S. military bases. In what the UAE called a "major escalation", Iran stepped up attacks this week in response to Trump's announcement of "Project Freedom" to escort ships in the strait, which he paused after 48 hours.
Iran accuses US of breaching truce
Iran accused the U.S. of breaching the ceasefire, which had largely held since it was announced on April 7 but has come under strain this week.
"Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure," Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday. Iran's Mehr news agency reported that one crew member was killed, 10 wounded and four missing after a U.S. Navy attack on an Iranian commercial ship late on Thursday.
Rubio, after meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, questioned why Italy and other allies were not backing Washington's efforts to re-open the strait.
"Are you going to normalize a country claiming to control an international waterway? Because if you normalize that, you've set a precedent that's going to get repeated in a dozen other places," he said.
US imposes sanctions
At the same time, Washington intensified sanctions as part of its strategy to increase pressure on Iran.
The U.S. Treasury on Friday announced sanctions against 10 individuals and companies, including several in China and Hong Kong, for aiding efforts by Iran's military to secure weapons and raw materials used to build Tehran's Shahed drones.
Treasury said in a statement it remains ready to take economic action against Iran's military industrial base so Tehran cannot reconstitute its production capacity and project power abroad.
It also said it was prepared to act against any foreign company supporting illicit Iranian commerce and could impose secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions, including those connected to China's independent “teapot” oil refineries, Reuters reported.
The announcement came days before Trump plans to travel to China for a meeting with President Xi Jinping.
(With inputs from Reuters)
About the Author
Mausam Jha is a journalist who focuses on world affairs and politics. She provides clear, informative reporting with a good understanding of both global events and their local impact. <br><br> Her clear, accessible reporting on political and international issues makes her a trusted source of news and analysis. <br><br> For the past three years, Mausam has worked with Mint, covering national politics, IR—including elections—and global affairs.<br> Before joining her current role, she gained experience working with The Statesman, ANI, and Financial Express, where she honed her skills in political and international news. <br><br> She has consistently tracked key electoral battles, including US elections, Japan elections, policy debates, and strategic affairs, explaining how global currents, from great power competition to regional conflicts <br><br> Beyond journalism, Mausam has a deep engagement with international relations, diplomacy, war studies, terrorism, political history, and political theory. She is particularly interested in the intersection of statecraft and society on how governance, ideology, and institutions shape lived realities, and how politics shape today's world order. <br><br> An avid reader of classical literature and political thought, she constantly explores the connections between historical ideas and contemporary policy challenges.
Wait for it…
Oops! Looks like you have exceeded the limit to bookmark the image. Remove some to bookmark this image.