Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has drawn up a contingency plan to flee Tehran if nationwide unrest intensifies and his security forces fail to suppress dissent, The Times reported, citing an intelligence report.
‘Plan B’ for Khamenei and inner circle
According to the report shared with news outlet, Khamenei, 86, would leave the country with a close circle of up to 20 aides and family members if he believes the army or security services are deserting, defecting or refusing orders.
“The ‘plan B’ is for Khamenei and his very close circle of associates and family, including his son and nominated heir apparent, Mojtaba,” an intelligence source told The Times.
Moscow seen as likely destination
Former Israeli intelligence officer Beni Sabti told news publication that Khamenei’s most likely destination would be Russia.
“There is no other place for him,” Sabti said, adding that Moscow offers both political protection and precedent for embattled allies.
Assad’s escape as a template
The contingency plan is reportedly modelled on the escape of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, a close Iranian ally, who fled Damascus to Moscow in December 2024 as opposition forces closed in on the capital.
“They have plotted an exit route out of Tehran should they feel the need to escape,” the intelligence source said, adding that preparations include “gathering assets, properties abroad and cash to facilitate their safe passage.”
Protests spread nationwide
The report comes as protests driven by economic hardship have spread across Iran in recent days. Demonstrators accuse security forces of using live fire, tear gas and water cannons to suppress unrest.
The anti-riot response involves the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Basij militia, police and the army — all ultimately under Khamenei’s command.
Reliance on IRGC
Khamenei remains the supreme authority in Iran, overriding the army, judiciary and media, and relies heavily on the IRGC as his primary power base. Any signs of disobedience within the security forces would represent a serious threat to his rule.
Health concerns
A psychological profile of Khamenei by a Western intelligence agency, seen by the news outlet, said the leader has appeared “weaker, both mentally and physically” since last year’s 12-day war with Israel.
He has rarely appeared in public since and has not been seen or heard from during the latest wave of protests.
During the conflict with Israel, Khamenei reportedly spent extended periods in a bunker to avoid assassination — behaviour the assessment described as reflecting an “obsession with survival.”
