Japan earthquake prediction: Over 1,000 quakes, Manga's July 5 ‘prophecy’ fuel premonitions | What we know so far
Since June 21, as many as 1,031 earthquakes rattled the Tokara island chain south of the Kyushu region in Japan.
More than 1,000 earthquakes in a small southern island of Japan and a 1990s manga comic’s “megaquake prediction” have fueled premonitions about a major disaster waiting to befall the country this month.
However, earthquakes can’t be predicted with today's science and technology, and so, meteorological experts have urged people to “base their understanding on scientific evidence.”
Frenzy erupted on social media, with netizens exclaiming, “A manga artist predicted that a massive earthquake would hit Japan at 4:18 am on July 5th and Japan would be destroyed. It’s now 4:30 am in Japan and nothing has happened.”
What’s happening in Japan?
Since June 21, as many as 1,031 earthquakes have rattled the Tokara island chain south of the Kyushu region in Japan. The latest strong tremors were experienced on Thursday and Saturday, triggering panic among people.
That quake on Thursday was “strong enough to make standing difficult”, Reuters reported. On Saturday, a 5.4-magnitude quake shook the area again.
On Saturday, Japan's government warned of more possible strong earthquakes in waters southwest of its main islands, but urged the public not to believe unfounded predictions of a major disaster.
According to the official data cited by the Guardian, the number of daily quakes peaked at 183 on June 23, then declined to 15 on June 26 and 16 on June 27. But the number rose again to 34 on June 28 and 98 on June 29. On June 30, 62 quakes were recorded.
Predictions and premonitions
A Japanese manga comic from the 90s claims that a “megaquake” — those above a magnitude of 8.0 on the Richter scale — will strike on July 5.
According to The TIME, the 2021 reprint of ‘The Future I Saw’ by Ryo Tatsuki warns that a “huge” tsunami – “three times the size” of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake – will wash over countries in the Pacific Ocean.
This has triggered panic and deterred some inbound travelers for the past several months. Arrivals from Hong Kong, where the rumours have circulated widely, were down 11 percent in May from the same month last year, according to the latest data cited by Reuters.
Ryo Tatsuki, the artist behind the manga "The Future I Saw", first published in 1999 and re-released in 2021, said she was "not a prophet", in a statement issued by her publisher.
Tsunami risk in Japan?
“There was no tsunami risk from Thursday's quake,” said Ayataka Ebita, director of the earthquake and tsunami observation division of the Japan Meteorological Agency.
"In areas where the tremors were strong, there is an increased risk of collapsed houses and landslides," he added, while cautioning about “earthquakes of similar magnitude for the foreseeable future.”
A disaster awaits?
Earlier this year, a government panel marginally increased the probability of a major jolt in the Nankai Trough, located off Japan’s Pacific coast, in the next 30 years to between 75 percent and 82 percent, according to the Guardian.
As per a revised government estimate in March, a megaquake in the region accompanied by a tsunami could kill as many as 298,000 people and cause damage worth up to $2 trillion.
When will the earthquakes stop?
Ayataka Ebita, director of the Japan Meteorological Agency's earthquake and tsunami monitoring division, said. "With our current scientific knowledge, it's difficult to predict the exact time, place or scale of an earthquake.”
Earthquakes are common in Japan, which is one of the world's most seismically active areas. It accounts for about one-fifth of the world's earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater.
How common are earthquakes in Japan?
Japan is one of the world's most seismically active countries, sitting on top of four major tectonic plates along the western edge of the Pacific "Ring of Fire".
Experts say the unusual topography of the area around the Tokara islands makes it easier for pressure to build below the sea-bed that is then relieved in the form of earthquakes, the Guardian reported.
The archipelago, home to around 125 million people, typically experiences around 1,500 jolts every year and accounts for about 18 percent of the world's earthquakes.
According to the JMA, a similar period of intense seismic activity in the Tokara area occurred in September 2023, when 346 earthquakes were recorded.