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Mint Explainer: Why India is affected by Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh takeover
Summary
- Russia, NATO, Turkey, Israel and India are all major players with stakes in this crisis
After a short, sharp military campaign, Azerbaijan has claimed victory over separatists in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The territory, which was recognised as part of Azerbaijan but was controlled by Armenian separatists for decades, has been at the centre of a major geopolitical conflict for decades.
Due to Azerbaijan's close ties with Pakistan, India has been strategically backing Aremnia via sales of military equipment. Russia, NATO, Turkey, and Israel also are major players with stakes in this crisis. Mint breaks down what’s going on.
What is the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh about?
Armenia and Azerbaijan have been quarrelling over this territory for over a century. Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognised as a part of Azerbaijan, which is a Muslim–majority state. However, the territory is dominated by ethnic Armenians, who retain cultural and political ties to Armenia. Nagorno-Karabakh, and some swathes of territory around it, had been controlled by Armenian separatists since Armenia won a war with Azerbaijan in the 1990s. However, in 2020, Azerbaijan turned the tables on Armenia by fighting and winning a war that allowed it to reconquer most territories earlier lost to Armenia. It also acquired a chunk of Nagorno-Karabakh. Thousands are estimated to have died in the fighting.
What is the current crisis about?
After the war in 2020, Russia stepped in to negotiate a peace agreement. Armenian troops withdrew from all territories adjacent to Nagorno Karabakh. Parts of the region remained administered by Armenian separatists but Russian peacekeepers were also deployed there. A ceasefire monitoring centre was also set up. That was where things stood until last week, when Azerbaijan declared the start of an “anti-terror" campaign against ethnic Armenian separatist troops. The immediate trigger was the death of Azerbaijan’s soldiers in landmine explosions, which the country’s government claimed was caused by Armenian separatists. This led to a quick, brutal offensive that killed over 200 people. Ultimately, the Armenian separatist groups agreed to disband their military while Russian peacekeepers have done little to stop Azerbaijan’s troops. The country’s President, Ilham Aliyev, declared victory. Meanwhile, ethnic Armenians have begun fleeing the territory and are moving towards Armenia.
Which are the major players involved?
Russia is a key player, given its historical heft in the region. It has helped broker ceasefire agreement and put troops on the ground. It had a close relationship with Armenia, but it has a tense relationship with current Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan. Experts speculate that Moscow has been uncomfortable with Pashinyan’s growing closeness with the West, which may also explain why Russia has done little to stop Azerbaijan’s offensives. The United States and the EU have condemned the use of force by Azerbaijan. Iran has also been a backer of Armenia while Turkey, Pakistan and Israel back Azerbaijan.
Why is India interested?
India has been seen as backing Armenia in this conflict. This is due to the growing closeness between Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Turkey. The three countries have built a closer military and political relationship in recent years. This has also caused a diplomatic headache for India as all three countries have backed Pakistan’s view on Kashmir. There are also concerns that a strengthened alliance among the three countries could stoke greater support for extremism in Kashmir. “For India, the conflict by itself may not be of any immediate consequence but the positive impact it would have in cementing the Turkey-Pakistan alliance, particularly on the military side, would be of concern. It could lay the basis for acting jointly in other theatres including Pakistan Occupied Kashmir given the existing political understanding on the subject," writes Pranab Dhal Samanta for the Economic Times.
What support has India given?
India has made high-profile sales of military equipment to Armenia over the last few years. In 2020, India sold the Swathi weapons locating radar system to Armenia for USD 40 million. After this, a government to government deal was struck under which New Delhi would supply Yerevan anti-tank munitions, Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers and ammunition to the tune of USD 250 million. This was followed by Armenia signing a USD 155 million deal with a private Indian firm for the supply of artillery systems. According to media reports, Azerbaijan has expressed its dissatisfaction with these arms sales with India.
