OPEC sticks to oil-demand view, flags US trade policy risks

“The new U.S. Administration’s trade policy has added more uncertainty into markets, which has the potential to create supply-demand imbalances that are not reflective of market fundamentals, and therefore generate more volatility," the Vienna-based cartel said.

OPEC still expects demand to grow by 1.45 million barrels a day this year and 1.43 million barrels a day the next, with strong air travel and road mobility boosting transportation fuel consumption. The group’s overall forecast remains significantly more optimistic than others in the industry, with the International Energy Agency estimating this year’s growth at 1.05 million barrels a day.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, traded around $76 a barrel, while the U.S. oil gauge West Texas Intermediate was around $72 a barrel in midday trade on Wednesday. Both benchmarks slid on reports of a large build in U.S. crude stockpiles after rising in the previous session on signs of tighter Russian supplies and drone attacks against energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine.

Future price direction remains uncertain, as traders keep their focus on U.S. President Trump’s tariff announcements amid growing concerns that escalating trade tensions could hurt global economic growth and dampen oil demand.

OPEC lowered its forecast for supply growth from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation–or DoC–to 1 million barrels a day in both 2025 and 2026 from 1.1 million barrels a day previously. The DoC, the cartel’s formal name for OPEC+, was formed in 2016 and comprises the 12 OPEC members and 10 non-members, of which Russia is the largest producer.

In January, overall OPEC crude-oil production fell by 121,000 barrels a day to 26.68 million barrels a day. UAE production fell by 37,000 barrels a day to 2.9 million barrels a day, while Nigerian output decreased by 29,000 barrels a day to 1.495 million barrels a day. Libya’s production instead rose by 17,000 barrels a day to around 1.28 million barrels a day.

Earlier this month, top ministers of the OPEC+ alliance–which pumps more than half of the world’s crude oil–made no recommendations to change the current oil output policy despite Trump’s calls to bring down the price of oil. The group has been withholding barrels for more than two years and is set to gradually raise output from April after having pushed back its plans multiple times in a bid to shore up prices.

Some market watchers say Trump’s trade turmoil could push OPEC+ to extend existing production cuts once again. However, the group could also decide to start raising output to offset any potential losses resulting from U.S. sanctions against Russia and Iran.

OPEC kept its estimates for global economic growth at 3.1% for this year and 3.2% for the next. Eurozone growth was further trimmed to 0.9% in 2025 and kept at 1.1% in 2026, while U.S. economic growth is still seen at 2.4% and 2.3% for the periods.

“In both developed economies and emerging markets, trade uncertainties have increased inflation expectations above major central banks’ targets and made it more challenging to cut interest rates in 2025," the cartel said. “The impact of U.S. trade policy on global macroeconomic growth remains to be seen."

Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com