Poland Presidential Election: Pro-Trump Karol Nawrocki wins in neck-to-neck race with Rafal Trzaskowski | 5 key points

Conservative Karol Nawrocki has won Poland's weekend presidential runoff election, according to the final vote count. Nawrocki won 50.89% of votes in a tight race against liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who won 49.11%, an AP report said. 

Exit polls in Poland's presidential runoff on Sunday showed the two candidates in a statistical tie, as the first one showed liberal Trzaskowski with a slight lead over Nawrocki. Two hours later, however, an updated “late poll” showed Nawrocki winning 50.7%, more than Trzaskowski with 49.3%, the report added.

Even though the final result was not clear on Sunday night, with the two locked in a near dead heat, both men claimed to have won in meetings with their supporters in Warsaw.

“We won," Trzaskowski told his supporters to chants of “Rafał, Rafał.” 

Nawrocki, speaking to his supporters at a separate event in Warsaw, said he believed he was on track to win. “We will win and save Poland,” he said. “We must win tonight." Nawrocki received direct help from the White House, having visited Trump briefly in Washington last month. On a visit to Poland last week, US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem urged Poles to vote for Nawrocki to ensure Poland enjoys close ties with Trump.

Poland presidential elections: Top developments

1. According to a Bloomberg report, the decisive presidential runoff pitted Trzaskowski, a liberal pro-EU politician, against Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party and aligned with US conservatives, including President Donald Trump.
2. The ballot will determine whether one of the EU’s fastest-growing economies and one of NATO’s biggest defense spenders remains a reliable partner within the 27-member bloc, which is under mounting pressure from Trump’s tariffs and Russia’s threat to the east.
3. At stake is the agenda of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose coalition ousted Poland’s nationalists in 2023. Their eight years in power brought scrutiny from Brussels over the rule of law and raised questions about Poland’s allegiance to the liberal West. An ally in the president’s office would remove an obstacle for Tusk, whose program has been stalled by outgoing President Andrzej Duda, a nationalist ally, the report said.
4. The vote has effectively become a referendum on Poland’s future, including its role in Europe, women’s rights, national identity and assistance to neighboring Ukraine. It’s also a reality check for revved-up Polish assets, which have broadly rallied since Prime Minister Donald Tusk's alliance won power two years ago. 
5. The ballot came two weeks after voters in Romania’s presidential election delivered a victory for another centrist mayor, Nicusor Dan of Bucharest, over a Trump-aligned far-right candidate, showing the limits of the MAGA appeal in Europe, Bloomberg added.

(With inputs from agencies)