Russian oil export sees steep fall in November amid US sanctions, revenue down by $3.6 billion YoY: IEA report

Russian oil exports in November saw a steep decline as buyers displayed increasing caution over the risks related to more strict US sanctions, according to the latest report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Russian oil exports last month by 420 kb/d (thousand barrels per day), the agency highlighted in its report.

This resulted in a loss for Moscow, as lower Russian oil exports dragged the oil revenue down to $11 billion, a $3.6 billion lower revenue as compared to last year.

“Russia's total oil exports fell by roughly 400 kb/d in November to 6.9 mb/d, as buyers assessed the implications and risks associated with more stringent sanctions,” the IEA said in the report.

Urals crude prices have also undergone a sharp decline amid the fall in exports, with the rates falling by $8.2 per barrel to $43.52/bbl. This has resulted in export revenues to be pushed to their lowest level since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022.

One barrel equals around 159 litres.

Global oil supply falls

The IEA report further noted that global oil supply fell by 610 kb/d in November, extending cumulative declines from September's record of 109 mb/d (Million barrels per day) to 1.5 mb/d.

OPEC was accounting for more than 75% of the overall decline in global oil supply, it found, triggered mainly due to supply disruptions in sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela.

The group contributed to 80% of the supply drop over the past two months, reflecting major unplanned outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan, alongside continuing contractions in Russia and Venezuela.

The oil loadings of Iran, in contrast, have remained strong at about 1.9 mb/d in recent months.

Among non-OPEC producers, the United States, Brazil and biofuels contributed the most to global oil supply.

Russia faces US sanctions

The United States has warned several countries that they could face additional tariffs and punitive trade measures if they continue purchasing Russian oil.

The Trump administration has imposed an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, calling it a consequence of continued purchases of Russian Oil. This was in addition to the 25% tariff previously announced by US President Donald Trump.

Global oil supply to grow

Despite recent setbacks, the IEA said global oil supply is still expected to grow by 3 mb/d in 2025 and by another 2.4 mb/d in 2026. On the demand side, world oil demand is forecast to rise by 830 kb/d in 2025, supported by improved macroeconomic and trade conditions.

The agency has also upgraded its 2026 demand outlook to 860 kb/d, an increase of 90 kb/d from its earlier estimate.

The report pointed out that gasoil and jet/kerosene will drive half of the demand growth this year, while fuel oil continues to lose ground due to substitution by natural gas and solar in power generation.